Massachusetts vs Boston College prediction: Money Williams and a rebuilt Boston College take aim at UMass's streak

A roster built from scratch

Boston College starts the Luke Murray era with a team that returns 0.0% of last season's minutes. Murray takes over from Earl Grant after a five-year tenure that ended with an 11-20 season, and he has said his goal is an NCAA bid in year one. Last season's Eagles numbers describe players who are gone, so they tell bettors almost nothing about this group.

What matters is who arrived. Money Williams carried Montana last season, scoring 20.6 points a game with a 34.1% usage rate, meaning a third of the Grizzlies' possessions ended with him. Ernest Shelton was a 15.9-point scorer at Merrimack who started every game. Up front, Brandon Benjamin pulled down 10.4 rebounds a game at Fairfield, and Andrija Bukumirovic posted an offensive rating of 121.5 (points produced per 100 possessions) at UT Martin. Every one of those lines came against lower-major schedules, and none of these players has shared a floor in a game that counts.

Martin's continuity edge

UMass is not fully intact either, but Frank Martin has more to build on. He described a core of seven returners, two of them starters, plus three transfers, including Jordan Clayton from Northwestern and Junjie "Barry" Wang from San Francisco. Martin did grumble about limited practice time, though the Minutemen got an exhibition in on Oct. 11.

Last season's UMass team went 17-16 and finished 188th of 365 in adjusted net efficiency (points scored minus allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents). Its identity was clear: it ran, ranking 61st in pace, and it finished defensive possessions, grabbing 74.7% of opponents' misses, 15th in the country. Against a Boston College frontcourt still learning its rotations, ending possessions after one shot is a real edge.

The foul line could swing it

The weak spot in Martin's defense last season was fouling. Opponents attempted free throws at a rate of 43.8% of their field goal tries, which ranked 349th. The Minutemen also struggled at the stripe themselves, making just 67.2%, 343rd nationally.

That sets up well for Boston College's new guards. Shelton made 87.2% of his free throws at Merrimack last season and Williams made 85.5% at Montana. If UMass's returners keep reaching and bumping, the Eagles' best shooters get easy points, and a tight game late tilts toward the team that converts. The last meeting ended exactly that way: Marcus Banks Jr. scored 29 and sealed it with two free throws with 4.6 seconds left.

Four straight and a big stage

UMass has won four straight in the series, most recently 76-74 on a neutral floor on Dec. 10, 2025. Boston College still leads the all-time series, and this is the first meeting at TD Garden since 2014. The game is part of a doubleheader whose main event is the UConn-Michigan rematch of the 2026 national title game, so both teams open on a big stage in front of a crowd that may not be there for them. Tip time has not been finalized.