Maryland Eastern Shore vs Boston College prediction: Money Williams and Boston College's transfer rebuild host a reset UMES

Two programs starting from scratch

Boston College returns 0.0% of last season's minutes. That is a full teardown, and it came with a new head coach: Luke Murray, 41, a first-time head coach hired in March from UConn's staff after BC fired Earl Grant. Maryland Eastern Shore is barely more familiar with itself. The Hawks bring back 6.9% of last season's minutes and just 2.5% of last season's points.

That makes last season's team numbers a weak guide for both sides. For the record, BC finished 11-20 and UMES went 9-23, and the Eagles ended with the far better adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents): 151st nationally against UMES at 347th. But almost none of the players who built those numbers will be on the floor. This game is about who arrived.

Murray imported a scoring core

BC's new rotation is built from mid-major production. Money Williams averaged 20.6 points at Montana while using 34.1% of his team's possessions when on the floor, a true lead-guard workload. Ernest Shelton made 99 threes at Merrimack. Brandon Benjamin posted 14.2 points and 10.4 rebounds at Fairfield, and Andrija Bukumirovic shot 36.4% from three at UT Martin. Armoni Zeigler, a senior who came through Saint Peter's and Ball State, is among the projected starters.

The fit matters because last season's Eagles could not shoot. BC made 29.4% of its threes, 358th in the country, and 65.3% of its free throws, 360th. Shelton hit 87.2% at the line last season and Williams 85.5%, so the new backcourt should close games far better than the old one did.

One piece is missing. Sophomore guard Jacob Furphy, the UConn transfer and the only player on the roster with prior experience under Murray, sprained his MCL in the 90-46 exhibition win over MIT. As of late October he was expected to miss two to six weeks, which likely rules him out here.

UMES has to rebuild its guard line

Cleo Hill Jr. enters his second season having lost the core of his rotation. Zion Obanla, the Hawks' leading scorer at 10.8 points, is gone, as are Dorion Staples, Jaden Cooper and point guard Michael Teal. The top returner, Levi Beckwith, started 24 games but averaged 2.0 points and made 11.8% of his threes. Forward Lucius Gibson-Savadel arrives from Sacred Heart after playing a reserve role there.

Last season's biggest flaw was ball security: UMES turned it over on 24.0% of possessions, dead last nationally. With an almost entirely new backcourt, that number may not carry over, but a team breaking in new guards in a road ACC gym is unlikely to be tidy. The MEAC coaches still picked UMES third in the league, so the staff clearly sees more in this group than the returning numbers show. The Hawks open Nov. 2 at Wake Forest, which will offer the first real look.

Slow tempo, and UMES has the size

Both programs crawled last season. UMES ranked 324th in pace and BC 339th, and two new rotations learning new systems rarely speed up in November. Expect a game with modest possessions, where BC's shot-making edge has fewer chances to snowball.

The one physical edge belongs to the visitors. UMES' minutes-weighted average height is 79.3 inches, a full inch taller than BC's 78.3. Benjamin, who blocked 1.6 shots per game at Fairfield, is the Eagles' most proven interior piece.

Schedule matters too. BC plays UMass in the Hall of Fame Series at TD Garden on Nov. 6, then opens this home stretch against UMES before hosting New Hampshire on Nov. 15.