Maine vs Rhode Island prediction: Rhode Island's ball-hawking defense greets Maine's rebuilt, unproven backcourt

The turnover battle comes first

Rhode Island and Maine spent last season winning the same way: by taking the ball away. Both were also bad at keeping it. That makes ball security the first thing to watch in Kingston.

The Rams forced turnovers on 21.1% of opponent possessions last season, 14th in Division I, and their steal rate ranked 23rd. Maine coughed it up on 19.1% of its own trips, 322nd nationally. Run that matchup back and the Black Bears would be in trouble.

It cuts both ways. Rhode Island's own turnover rate of 19.2% ranked 327th, and Maine's defense forced turnovers at a 19.9% clip, 42nd in the country. Last season's numbers are a shaky guide here, though. Maine returns just 27.1% of last season's minutes and Rhode Island 31.4%, so most of the ball handlers involved are new.

Threes, fouls and free throws

Rhode Island's identity under Archie Miller last season was volume from deep without the accuracy to match. Threes made up 43.5% of its shots, 101st nationally, but the Rams made only 31.1% of them, 323rd. That's a tough profile to bring against Maine, whose opponents shot 29.6% from three last season, sixth-best in the country.

The free throw line could swing the other way. Rhode Island's defense sent opponents to the line constantly last season; its opponent free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) ranked 340th. Maine was a strong team at getting there, but it made just 64.1% of its free throws, 364th of 365. Williams, who shot 81% from the line at Holy Cross, could matter late if Maine is close.

New faces carry both teams

Rhode Island rebuilt around two productive transfers. Dylan Williamson started all 34 games at Towson and hit 84 threes while averaging 14.6 points. Matas Deniusas started every game at UT Martin and scored 12.5 per game with a 112.1 offensive rating (points produced per 100 possessions).

The best returner might be Jahmere Tripp, who shot 41.5% from three last season and carried a 26% usage rate. Jonah Hinton is also back after leading the returners at 12.6 points per game, though he made just 31.9% from deep.

Maine's rebuild is steeper. TJ Biel led the team at 11.8 points and is gone, and Logan Carey left for Saint Joseph's. Ace Flagg, who averaged 6.7 points last season, is the top returner. That is a thin base for an offense that finished 362nd in adjusted efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) last season.

Availability and the Rams' frontcourt

Rhode Island's injury picture centers on forward Mouhamed Sow, listed with a lower-body injury as of Oct. 27. He didn't dress for the Rams' last exhibition. A knee injury and surgery held him to five games last season, when he averaged 5.6 rebounds. Freshman guard Jaen Chatman is dealing with right index finger and heel issues but hadn't missed a practice as of Oct. 29. Miller said, "My hope would be and our anticipation is that we have everybody available for the opener," which is against Holy Cross.

Sow's status matters on the glass. Rhode Island dominated the boards in its last exhibition, and Maine grabbed just 19.8% of its own misses last season, 364th nationally. No Maine availability news has surfaced.

Maine opens on Monday, Nov. 2 at Providence before heading to Kingston. The Rams were picked 12th in the A-10 preseason poll. Both teams played slowly last season, and Maine's pace ranked 301st. Expect a low-possession game in which every turnover counts.