La Salle vs Villanova prediction: Villanova's new shooters test La Salle's perimeter defense in City Series

Two rebuilt rosters

This City Series game pits two second-year coaches against each other, and both reshaped their rosters. Kevin Willard won 24 games in his first season on the Main Line. Darris Nichols, hired from Radford to succeed Fran Dunphy, went 9-23. The gap between the programs was wide last season: Villanova finished 39th in adjusted net efficiency (points scored minus allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents), and La Salle finished 237th.

How much of that carries over is the real question. Villanova returns just 26.8% of last season's minutes after losing Acaden Lewis, Duke Brennan and Bryce Lindsay. La Salle brings back 33.1%. Last season's team numbers describe both teams only loosely, so the players arriving matter as much as the ones who left. Villanova opens in Rome against Notre Dame on Nov. 1, so it will have a game behind it by tip on Nov. 10. Villanova won the last meeting 70-55 at La Salle last November.

The three-point gap

Villanova shot threes on 45.7% of its attempts last season, 55th-most in Division I, and the new pieces fit that style. Simmons made 43.1% of his threes at St. Bonaventure. Fiegen hit 41.4% at Cornell and posted an offensive rating of 134.3 on heavy usage.

That volume points straight at La Salle's biggest weakness. The Explorers let opponents shoot 36.3% from three last season, 332nd nationally. If that perimeter defense hasn't improved, Villanova's rebuilt backcourt gets clean looks all night.

La Salle also tried to fix its own shooting. It made 29.8% of its threes last season, 352nd in the country. Kam Burton arrives from Stephen F. Austin after shooting 42.7% from deep, and Niagara transfer Vice Zanki hit 38.5%. Whether those two can stretch a defense against a Big East opponent decides how competitive La Salle's offense looks.

Villanova's frontcourt health

Tyler Perkins, a preseason first-team All-Big East pick, was cleared for all basketball activities after offseason shoulder surgery in early October. He averaged 13.7 points last season and gives Villanova a proven scorer to anchor the newcomers.

The frontcourt is less settled. Matt Hodge is still recovering from the torn ACL he suffered against St. John's in March and had no timetable as of Oct. 9. Kwame Evans Jr., who grabbed 7.4 rebounds a game at Oregon, has been listed as day-to-day with a left leg injury, and his current status is unconfirmed. Redshirt freshman center Nico Onyekwere couldn't make the Rome trip because of visa issues. With Brennan's 10.2 rebounds a game gone to Oklahoma, Villanova's size is thin until Evans is back.

Where La Salle can hang

La Salle's best path runs through the glass. The Explorers grabbed 33.8% of their own misses last season, 90th nationally, while Villanova ranked 276th in defensive rebounding. That was with Brennan; without him and possibly without Evans, second chances are there for La Salle.

Rob Dockery, a preseason second-team All-Atlantic 10 pick, drives that effort. He averaged 12.5 points last season and attacks the paint far more than he shoots threes. Villanova blocked just 5.9% of opponents' two-point tries last season, 348th in the country, so drives and putbacks may come easily. La Salle's lineup also measured taller by minutes-weighted height, 78.2 inches to Villanova's 76.7. Eunique Rink, a Hampton transfer, adds shot-blocking if he stays healthy, which is an open question.