James Madison vs Kentucky prediction: Justin McBride turns on his old Dukes as rebuilt Kentucky hosts JMU

McBride faces his old team

Justin McBride was an all-conference player at James Madison last season, the forward the offense ran through. He averaged 15.3 points with a 27.9% usage rate, meaning more than a quarter of the Dukes' possessions ended with him when he was on the floor, and he made 40% of his threes. On Friday, Nov. 6, he lines up against that same group at Rupp Arena, with a 7 p.m. ET tip on SEC Network.

The Dukes know his moves, and he knows their coverages. That cuts both ways. JMU has to replace his production while also defending it.

The bench carries its own storyline. Preston Spradlin, in his third season at JMU, is a Pikeville, Ky., native who spent 2009-14 on Kentucky's staff as a graduate assistant and director of operations. This is the first meeting between the programs.

Continuity against a new roster

The two rosters were built in opposite ways. JMU's returners played 76.0% of last season's minutes. Kentucky's returners played 21.4%.

That matters for how to read last season's numbers. Adjusted net efficiency (points scored minus points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) ranked Kentucky 29th and JMU 213th of 365. JMU's number largely describes the team that will take the floor. Kentucky's describes players who are mostly gone, starting with Otega Oweh and his 18.6 points a game.

Mark Pope rebuilt through the portal. Milan Momcilovic shot 48.4% from three at Iowa State last season and shone in his Kentucky debut, the 69-49 exhibition win over Little Rock on Oct. 16. Alex Wilkins averaged 17.8 points at Furman, and Zoom Diallo arrives from Washington. The early warning sign came from Pope himself, who spent the post-exhibition conversation on turnovers and offensive struggles.

JMU's core is the guards who stayed. Cliff Davis averaged 15.6 points and made 37.8% of his threes last season, and Bradley Douglas runs the offense alongside him. Portal additions include Garrett Sundra from Notre Dame and KJ Windham from Northwestern.

Kentucky's thin guard line

Kentucky's depth at guard is still shaky three weeks out. Kam Williams had a second foot surgery in July. On Oct. 17, Pope said, "we're hopefully talking about several weeks to a month, not months and months." Williams is running and jumping, but that timeline puts Nov. 6 right at the edge.

Jerone Morton hurt his knee in practice and remained sidelined as of Oct. 9. Trent Noah re-aggravated a hamstring this summer, and as of Oct. 17 Pope said Noah is struggling to regain his health. Pope has also been described as expecting Williams and Noah back before the regular season, so their status is unsettled.

If the guards stay out, more minutes fall to Wilkins, Diallo and freshman Mason Williams, about whom Pope has expressed high hopes.

Where JMU must find possessions

JMU's path to an upset usually starts with extra possessions, and last season's Dukes didn't create them. They forced turnovers on just 12.9% of opponent possessions, 361st in the country. Kentucky's ball security (15.5% turnover rate, 95th last season) belonged mostly to departed players, but this JMU defense doesn't look built to punish a sloppy night.

The Dukes also sent opponents to the line. Their opponent free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) was 39.7%, 306th nationally. Kentucky also has the size edge, averaging 79.8 inches weighted by minutes to JMU's 76.7, with center Malachi Moreno back after blocking 1.5 shots a game.

JMU's real defensive strength was making shots hard. Opponents posted a 48.8% effective field goal percentage, where threes count 1.5 times, which ranked 69th. Contesting Momcilovic without fouling is the job.

What to watch

• McBride's touches: whether JMU sends extra help at the player it knows best.
• Kentucky's guard availability: Williams, Morton and Noah's status shapes the rotation.
• Whistles: a JMU team that fouled often, facing a bigger frontcourt.
• Davis from deep: JMU's best scorer needs to hit threes for the Dukes to keep pace.