Indiana State vs Ball State prediction: Chris Capko's rebuilt Ball State gets an early Indiana State test
With most of last season's minutes gone, Ball State's transfer haul faces an in-state rival that has won three straight in this series and reloaded too.
- Expect a feeling-out game between two remade rosters, with Ball State's new transfer guards trying to end Indiana State's recent hold on the series.
- Ball State's ball pressure against Indiana State's sloppy ball handling, which ranked 350th in turnover rate last season.
- No spread or total is posted yet. Ball State returns just 16.6% of last season's minutes, so last season's ratings are a weak guide.
A program starting over
Ball State is close to a brand-new team. Players on this season's roster logged just 16.6% of last season's minutes and 7.9% of its points. Chris Capko, the former SMU associate head coach, takes over from Michael Lewis, whose final team went 12-19.
That makes last season's numbers more history than forecast. Ball State's adjusted offense (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) ranked 337th of 365 last season. Almost none of the people responsible for that are still around. The question on Nov. 6 is how quickly a roster built in April and May can play together.
The guards Capko brought in
The rebuild runs through the backcourt. K'Jei Parker is the most dangerous shooter of the group. He hit 40.8% from three at Massachusetts last season.
Zaon Collins brings a playmaker's line from Fresno State: 11.6 points and 4.6 assists per game last season. Sean Blake started for Vermont and averaged 9.9 points. Javion Guy-King adds another volume shooter from Central Arkansas. Babatunde Durodola, from Temple, gives Capko some frontcourt help.
The most notable returner is forward Mason Jones, who played 30.9 minutes a game last season and averaged 4.2 points. Purdue's Aaron Fine and Texas Tech's Jazz Henderson Jr. are also among the newcomers.
Indiana State reloads, too
Indiana State isn't bringing back a finished product either. Matthew Graves, in his third season, added nine transfers, five freshmen and international big man Alessio Calamita, and he has redshirt freshman Martin Kaupanger back. The Sycamores went 11-21 last season and weren't in the top six of the Missouri Valley's official preseason poll.
Last season's team did two things well. It made 58.3% of its two-pointers, 22nd in the country. It also had one of the most connected offenses in the sport, with an assist rate ranked ninth. Its weakness was carelessness: a turnover rate that ranked 350th. With so many new faces, none of that is guaranteed to carry over.
Where the game could tilt
If any habit survives the roster churn, watch the turnover battle. Ball State's defense forced turnovers at the 41st-highest rate in the country last season. Capko's new guard group will help decide whether that pressure continues.
Tempo is another unknown. Ball State played at the 355th-fastest pace last season, one of the slowest in Division I. A new coach and a guard-heavy roster could change that.
A series Indiana State has owned lately
Indiana State has won the last three meetings: 83-72 on a neutral floor in December 2023, 94-84 in Muncie in November 2024, and 70-52 in Terre Haute last November. The Sycamores are 6-4 over the last 10.
This is Indiana State's first road trip of the season, into Worthen Arena for an in-state rivalry. For Ball State, it's an early chance to show the rebuild is more than a list of signings.
Key players
- K'Jei Parker (Ball State): Shot 40.8% from three on 157 attempts at UMass last season while averaging 10.7 points.
- Zaon Collins (Ball State): Averaged 11.6 points and 4.6 assists for Fresno State last season.
- Sean Blake (Ball State): Started 27 games for Vermont last season and averaged 9.9 points.
- Mason Jones (Ball State): Ball State's top returner by minutes, at 30.9 per game last season with 30 starts.
Numbers that matter
| Ball State returning minutes | 16.6% | Ball State's roster carries over very little from last season, so last season's team numbers say little about this group. |
|---|---|---|
| Indiana State turnover rate rank, last season | 350th | The Sycamores gave the ball away more than almost anyone, which could matter against a defense that pressured well last season. |
| Ball State forced turnover rate rank, last season | 41st | Ball State's best defensive habit last season, though the new roster will decide whether it lasts. |
| Last meeting | 70-52 | Indiana State's win last November was its third straight in the series. |
Indiana State vs Ball State: quick answers
When is Indiana State vs Ball State?
Friday, November 6, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET.