Illinois vs Texas Tech prediction: Short-handed Illinois opens its road slate against Texas Tech's rebuilt shooters

Two depth charts in flux

No. 3 Illinois plays its first road game in Lubbock on Nov. 10, a year after edging No. 19 Texas Tech at home. Neither team will look like its preseason poster. The more useful question is which absences hurt more.

Illinois is without David Mirkovic, its top returner, who is recovering from foot surgery. Brad Underwood said he will be out "for a little while," and he is expected to miss early November games. Andrej Stojakovic and Zvonimir Ivisic were both listed as out for the Oct. 28 UIC exhibition with head injuries. Neither has a status for this game yet. Tomislav Ivisic left the Baylor exhibition with an injury but was cleared to play against UIC. Freshman Lincoln Williams is also unsettled after a fall in practice.

Texas Tech's absences look longer. JT Toppin averaged 21.8 points and 10.8 rebounds last season before tearing his right ACL on Feb. 17. As of Oct. 20 he wasn't practicing and had no return timeline. Grant McCasland has since called him ahead of schedule but not close to practicing. UCF transfer Jamichael Stillwell was still ineligible as of late October, with no reason or timeline given. That leaves the Red Raiders thin up front.

Lubbock's new wave of shooters

Texas Tech returns just 34.2% of last season's minutes, so its 2025-26 team numbers are a loose guide. The shooting identity carries over. The Red Raiders made 39.1% of their threes last season, 7th in Division I. Donovan Atwell is back after hitting 45.6% from deep.

McCasland added guards who scored in bulk elsewhere. Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn averaged 20.7 points at UNLV, and Hofstra's Cruz Davis led his team in usage. Both made at least 40% of their threes. Darrion Williams returns after a season at NC State to add another wing who can create.

Illinois' perimeter defense stood up to that kind of team last season. Opponents shot 31.3% from three against the Illini, 42nd nationally. Texas Tech lost its own exhibition at Kentucky by 11, so this group is still learning to play together.

The glass belongs to the bigger team

Illinois' roster averages 81.1 inches, weighted by minutes. Texas Tech's averages 76.7. That size gap showed up last season on the offensive glass, where the Illini grabbed 39.3% of their own misses, 3rd in the country. Texas Tech ranked 217th in defensive rebound rate, and that was with Toppin.

The offensive glass is where Illinois creates extra possessions, because it does not force turnovers. Its forced turnover rate ranked 365th of 365 last season. Illinois protects the ball instead, with a turnover rate 14th-best nationally. Missing Mirkovic, who averaged 8.0 rebounds last season, takes some size away, but Tomislav Ivisic and the rest of the frontcourt should still be bigger than Texas Tech's group.

A slow game with few whistles

Underwood's teams play slowly. Illinois averaged 62.9 possessions per 40 minutes last season, 359th in Division I. Texas Tech sat near the middle at 192nd. If Illinois controls the pace, Texas Tech gets fewer possessions to make up for its size disadvantage with threes.

Don't expect many free throws. Illinois allowed the lowest opponent free throw rate (free throws attempted per field goal attempt) in the nation last season. Texas Tech ranked 349th at getting to the line. This game will be decided by jump shots and rebounds, not foul trouble.

Illinois' offense ranked 1st in adjusted efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) last season. Much of that production is now gone or injured. Stefan Vaaks, the preseason Big Ten Transfer of the Year, and five-star freshman Quentin Coleman are the newcomers who need to fill the gap.

What to watch

• Injury reports: Nov. 10 statuses for Stojakovic and Zvonimir Ivisic, and whether Stillwell has been cleared.
• Atwell's volume: how many clean looks Texas Tech's best shooter gets against Illinois' length.
• Second chances: whether Texas Tech's smaller lineup can keep Illinois off the offensive glass.
• Rematch context: Illinois won last season's meeting 81-77 in Champaign.