Idaho vs Colorado State prediction: Colorado State's returning shooters test an Idaho roster rebuilt from scratch
The Rams bring back most of an elite shooting offense for their first Pac-12 season, while Idaho has to replace nearly everyone who carried last year's run.
- Colorado State's continuity and shooting should control a slow game in Fort Collins, while Idaho's new pieces search for chemistry in November.
- Kristian Gonzalez against the Rams' defense. He is Idaho's most recent scoring standout after his 24-point exhibition, and the Rams ranked 300th in defensive efficiency last season.
- No spread or total is posted yet. Last season Colorado State played at the 361st-fastest pace of 365, which matters for any total.
Idaho starts nearly from scratch
Idaho went 21-15 last season and enters as the defending Big Sky tournament champion, but little of that team remains. Players on this season's roster accounted for just 13.8% of last season's minutes and 11.4% of its points. Four players are back from the championship roster.
The departures cover the whole engine room. Kolton Mitchell (13.7 points per game) and Jackson Rasmussen (13.5) are gone, as are Biko Johnson and Brody Rowbury, all of them regular starters. Coaches and media picked Alex Pribble's fourth Idaho team sixth in the Big Sky.
The bright spot is Kristian Gonzalez. An injury ended his season after one game last year, and he returned in the Oct. 10 exhibition against Boise State with 24 points. Seth Joba and Miles Klapper, both bench pieces last season, are the other returners with real minutes. Because so few players are back, last season's team numbers say more about Idaho's system under Pribble than about this group.
Rams can shoot, but can they guard
Colorado State's identity under second-year coach Ali Farokhmanesh was clear last season. The Rams posted an effective field goal percentage (a shooting mark that counts threes 1.5 times) of 57.9%, 11th in the country. They also hit 38.5% from three, another 11th-place ranking.
The other end was the problem. Colorado State ranked 300th in defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions), and opponents made 53.8% of their twos. Unlike Idaho, the Rams kept their core: they return six of their top eight scorers as they open their first season in the Pac-12, which the program joined on July 1.
That continuity is the biggest edge in this game. A team with set roles and a proven shooting system gets an early-November home game against a roster still learning itself.
A crawl with loose ball handling
Expect few possessions. Colorado State averaged 62.7 possessions per 40 minutes last season, among the slowest teams in Division I. Idaho played closer to the middle at 68.7, and the home team usually sets the tempo in a game like this.
The Rams' weak spot on offense was ball security. They turned it over on 18.9% of possessions, 311th nationally. Idaho's defense last season wasn't built to exploit that: it ranked 286th in forced turnover rate. Its strength was finishing possessions, with a defensive rebound rate of 76.5%, fourth in the country. Whether this rebuilt frontcourt, including Western Michigan transfer Hudson Ward, can keep that up will shape how many second chances Colorado State gets.
What to watch
- Gonzalez's usage. He is the only Idaho player with a recent scoring line, and the Vandals need him to create shots against a defense that struggled to stop anyone.
- Idaho's threes. Last season the Vandals took 47.0% of their shots from deep, 34th nationally. A new roster may play differently, but their shooting volume decides how close this stays.
- Colorado State availability. One roster listing marks Josh Pascarelli as undisclosed, and the Rams haven't explained it. No other injury news has surfaced for either team.
- Tip time. Both schools list 7 p.m. Mountain at Moby Arena. No broadcast had been announced as of Oct. 14.
Where the money is on Idaho vs Colorado State
On the Kalshi moneyline: Idaho: 67% of bets, 45% of the money; Colorado State: 33% of bets, 55% of the money.
Key players
- Kristian Gonzalez (Idaho): He played one game last season before an injury, then scored 24 in the Oct. 10 exhibition against Boise State.
- Seth Joba (Idaho): Played 17.2 minutes a game off the bench last season and shot 36.2% from three.
- Miles Klapper (Idaho): Hit 42.9% of his threes last season in 11.9 minutes a game.
- Hudson Ward (Idaho): Started six of 13 games at Western Michigan last season, averaging 4.5 points.
Numbers that matter
| Idaho returning minutes | 13.8% | Almost all of last season's production left, so Idaho's team stats from last year are a weak guide. |
|---|---|---|
| Colorado State eFG% (last season) | 57.9% | Ranked 11th nationally, and six of the Rams' top eight scorers return. |
| Colorado State defensive efficiency rank (last season) | 300th | The Rams' clear weakness and Idaho's best path to keeping the game close. |
| Colorado State pace (last season) | 62.7 | Possessions per 40 minutes, among the slowest in Division I, which points to a low-possession game. |
| Idaho defensive rebound % (last season) | 76.5% | Fourth nationally, though the players who produced it are mostly gone. |
Idaho vs Colorado State: quick answers
When is Idaho vs Colorado State?
Friday, November 6, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET.
Where is the money on Idaho vs Colorado State?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Idaho: 67% of bets, 45% of the money; Colorado State: 33% of bets, 55% of the money.