Idaho State vs Wyoming prediction: Idaho State brings a near-total rebuild into Laramie against Wyoming
The Bengals return almost none of last season's minutes, while Wyoming folds 10 newcomers into a program coming off its best year under Sundance Wicks.
- Wyoming plays its second home game in four days against a Bengals roster that has rarely shared a floor in a real game.
- Watch Wyoming's foul discipline: last season the Cowboys allowed the second-highest opponent free throw rate in Division I.
- No spread or total is posted yet; last season Wyoming's adjusted net rating ranked 94th, Idaho State's 250th.
Idaho State starts from scratch
Few teams in the country will take the floor this November with less continuity than Idaho State. Players on this season's roster accounted for just 3.6% of the Bengals' minutes last season and 1.7% of their points. Ryan Looney started the rebuild in April by announcing six additions, and the roster that arrives in Laramie bears little resemblance to the one that went 13-20.
The departures carried the team. Connor Hollenbeck, a forward who started all 33 games, led the way at 13.2 points per game. Martin Kheil, the most prolific shooter with 67 made threes, is now at Iona. The top returner, guard Quin Patterson, averaged 8.2 minutes and 1.5 points last season.
That makes last season's team profile a weak guide. For the record, the Bengals finished with an adjusted defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) of 117.6, 319th of 365. Whether a new group defends better is the biggest unknown in this game.
Wyoming rebuilds with a foundation
Wyoming is reshaping its roster too. Wicks said the Cowboys must integrate 10 new players into the program's culture and competitive consistency. The difference is what they are building on: Wyoming climbed from 12 wins in Wicks' first season to 18 last season, earning the program's first NIT appearance in 23 years.
The league's coaches expect the climb to continue. Wyoming was picked fifth in the Mountain West preseason poll, behind New Mexico, Grand Canyon, Nevada and UNLV. Last season's offense was the strength, finishing 77th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency at 115.4 points per 100 possessions.
The schedule also helps. The Cowboys open with two straight home games, Regis on Nov. 3 and then Idaho State, so they will have one regular-season game behind them before this tip.
The fouling problem
The clearest weakness in Wyoming's profile last season was at the free throw line. Opponents attempted free throws at a rate of 46.7% of their field goal attempts, 361st of 365 teams. Free throw rate measures how often a team gets to the line relative to its shots, and few defenses in the country gave away more.
Idaho State's team drew fouls well last season, with a free throw rate that ranked 88th, but almost none of those players are back. The more useful question is whether Wyoming's newcomers fix the habit. A rebuilt Bengals roster with limited shared experience may struggle to generate clean looks, and free throws are the easiest points available against a defense that reaches.
Wyoming also offered little resistance at the rim last season, with a block rate that ranked 317th. A Bengals team searching for an identity could find one attacking the paint.
Where the market stands
No spread or total has been posted for this game yet. When one appears, the starting point is the gap between last season's final ratings: Wyoming's adjusted net efficiency of 8.3 ranked 94th, while Idaho State's ranked 250th. Both rosters have changed enough that those ratings describe programs more than these specific teams, and Wyoming's opener against Regis will be the first real look at what Wicks has assembled.
Pace offers a hint for the total. Both teams played slower than average last season, with Idaho State ranking 279th in possessions per 40 minutes and Wyoming 214th.
Where the money is on Idaho State vs Wyoming
On the Kalshi moneyline: Idaho State: 0% of bets, 0% of the money; Wyoming: 100% of bets, 100% of the money.
Key players
- Quin Patterson (Idaho State): Last season he came off the bench in 25 games, averaging 8.2 minutes and 1.5 points.
- Landen Birley (Idaho State): Last season he appeared in 10 games at 3.5 minutes per game.
- Khaden Bennett (Wyoming): One of two Cowboys who represented the team at Mountain West media day on Oct. 6.
- Uriyah Rojas (Wyoming): Joined Bennett as Wyoming's player representative at Mountain West media day on Oct. 6.
Numbers that matter
| Idaho State returning minutes | 3.6% | Nearly the entire rotation from last season's 13-20 team is gone. |
|---|---|---|
| Wyoming opponent free throw rate, last season | 46.7% | Ranked 361st of 365, the defense's most glaring weakness. |
| Wyoming adjusted net rating rank, last season | 94th | Compared with Idaho State's 250th, the baseline for any line that appears. |
| Idaho State adjusted defensive efficiency, last season | 117.6 | Ranked 319th, though a rebuilt roster may look very different. |
Idaho State vs Wyoming: quick answers
When is Idaho State vs Wyoming?
Friday, November 6, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET.
Where is the money on Idaho State vs Wyoming?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Idaho State: 0% of bets, 0% of the money; Wyoming: 100% of bets, 100% of the money.