Houston Christian vs South Dakota prediction: South Dakota's new sharpshooters test Houston Christian's rebuilt perimeter defense

Two rebuilds, one opener

Very little about last season walks onto the floor at the Sanford Coyote Sports Center on Tuesday, Nov. 10. South Dakota returns 21.4% of last season's minutes, and Houston Christian returns 20.5%. Eric Peterson, in his fourth season, said the Coyotes would have 12 new players, and the departures are steep: Isaac Bruns left for USC, Cameron Fens for North Carolina and Jordan Crawford for Missouri.

The last games these programs played set a modest baseline. South Dakota fell 76-62 to Omaha in the Summit tournament on March 7, and Houston Christian lost 73-60 to New Orleans in the first round of the Southland tournament on March 9. Last season's end-of-year adjusted ratings (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) put them almost side by side, 287th and 289th in net efficiency. With rosters this new, treat those ratings as a loose sketch rather than a forecast.

The Coyotes were picked fifth in the Summit preseason poll. Houston Christian, in Craig Doty's second season, enters with its exact rotation still hard to pin down from the outside.

Summers and Sanchez bring the range

South Dakota's offseason haul reads like a deliberate push for shooting. Melo Sanchez made 42.8% of his threes at Central Connecticut last season, and Jahni Summers hit 42.2% at Sacramento State. Both carried modest usage, which suggests they can share the floor without stepping on each other.

That matters because last season's Houston Christian defense struggled to contest. Opponents shot 34.8% from three against the Huskies, 258th in Division I, and posted a 53.8% effective field goal percentage (a shooting mark that counts threes as 1.5 makes), 314th. Few of the defenders from that group remain, so the question is whether Doty's new pieces close out better than the old ones did.

The anchor for the Coyotes is Vince Buzelis, a preseason All-Summit second-team pick. He was an efficient finisher last season with a 55.7% effective field goal percentage in a reserve-heavy role, and he now steps into the lead.

Houston Christian's protection problem

The Huskies' clearest weakness last season was holding onto the ball. They turned it over on 19.1% of possessions, 321st nationally. Their best returning scorer, D'Aundre Samuels, carried a 24.5% usage rate with a 47.8% effective field goal percentage, so a lot of possessions ran through a guard who was not especially efficient.

The incoming help is more steady than spectacular. Chris Mubiru started 28 games at Northwestern State and posted a 114.2 offensive rating on low usage. South Dakota did little to exploit sloppiness a year ago, forcing turnovers on 16.4% of possessions (223rd), so the Huskies may get a forgiving test here.

Where Houston Christian does have an edge is the paint. Its block rate ranked 78th last season, and Mambourou Mara returns after averaging 1.5 blocks. South Dakota's block rate ranked 350th, and opponents made 55.7% of their twos against the Coyotes, 336th. Without Fens, the Coyotes' rim protection looks thinner still.

A pace tug-of-war

Last season these teams played at different speeds. South Dakota averaged 70.5 possessions per 40 minutes, 56th in the country, while Houston Christian ground it down at 65, 306th. The Coyotes also lived at the foul line, ranking 6th in free throw rate, though much of that came from players who have since left.

Whoever dictates tempo shapes the scoring environment. A quicker game favors South Dakota's new shooters getting volume; a slower, half-court game leans on Houston Christian's shot-blocking and ball movement, which ranked 48th in assist rate last season. With no total posted yet, the early pace will be the first real clue to how these rebuilt groups want to play.