Holy Cross vs Villanova prediction: Villanova's portal-built roster gets its first home look against Holy Cross

A roster built in the portal

Villanova went 24-9 last season and reached its first NCAA Tournament since 2022. Almost none of that team is left. Players on this roster accounted for just 26.8% of last season's minutes. Only Tyler Perkins and Matt Hodge came back, so the Wildcats' old team numbers are a poor guide to the group taking the floor Nov. 6.

Kevin Willard, in his second season, rebuilt through the transfer portal, and the Big East coaches still picked Villanova third. The headliner may be Darryl Simmons II, who shot 43.1% from three at St. Bonaventure. He took 218 threes there, so that wasn't a hot streak. Jake Fiegen brings the most efficient line of the group. He posted a 64.9% effective field goal percentage (a shooting mark that counts threes 1.5 times) at Cornell. Elijah Crawford, the projected point guard, ran UIC's offense with a 31.3% usage rate.

Perkins connects the two eras. He started all 33 games last season and scored 13.7 points per game. He has been fully cleared after offseason shoulder surgery.

Room to work inside

Holy Cross went 11-22 last season and 5-13 in the Patriot League under Dave Paulsen, who enters his third season. Its interior defense was the weakest part of the operation. Opponents made 56.5% of their twos against the Crusaders, which ranked 346th nationally. Their block rate ranked 358th of 365.

That sets up Villanova's forwards. Devin Royal averaged 13.7 points as a full-time starter at Ohio State, and Kwame Evans Jr. pulled down 7.4 rebounds a game at Oregon. Luigi Suigo rounds out the projected frontcourt. Villanova also lost its interior anchor. Duke Brennan averaged 10.2 rebounds before leaving for Oklahoma, so how the new bigs hold up matters well beyond this game.

Where Holy Cross can hang

The Crusaders did a few things well last season. They finished defensive possessions, grabbing 73.1% of opponents' misses, which ranked 45th nationally. They also kept opponents off the line: their opponent free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) ranked 24th. And they protected the ball, with a turnover rate that ranked 85th.

The problem was the other end. Holy Cross ranked 357th in offensive rebound rate, so it rarely got second chances. Its adjusted offense (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) ranked 317th last season. Freshmen Ethan Clark and Tim Finau are among the new faces. A team that can't score in volume needs to keep the game short and the possessions clean to stay within reach.

Health in the Villanova frontcourt

Hodge tore his ACL and had no return timetable as of Oct. 7. One report pointed to a possible return around Big East play in December. He shot 36.8% from three last season, so his absence thins the spacing at forward.

Evans is the more immediate question. A left leg injury kept him out of the George Mason exhibition, which Villanova won by 17. Reports from early October listed him as day to day and expected him back for the Nov. 1 opener against Notre Dame in Rome. No newer update has surfaced. If he is limited, Royal and Suigo carry more of the load inside against a Holy Cross front line that rarely blocked shots.