Green Bay vs Northern Iowa prediction: Northern Iowa rebuilds its elite defense almost from scratch against Green Bay

A defense with almost nobody back

Northern Iowa was one of the hardest teams in the country to score on last season. Its defensive efficiency, points allowed per 100 possessions, was 96.4, sixth in Division I, and opponents hit just 28.7% of their threes, third-best nationally. That defense helped the Panthers win their sixth Missouri Valley tournament title and reach the NCAA Tournament for the ninth time.

Almost none of the players who built it remain. Players on this season's roster logged only 9.6% of last season's minutes. Trey Campbell left for Utah, Leon Bond III for Iowa State and Will Hornseth for Utah State. The top returner, Kyle Pock, played 12.7 minutes a game off the bench.

The coach is new too. Kyle Green was hired on April 1 after five years as an assistant to T.J. Otzelberger at Iowa State, a program known for defense. Last season's numbers describe a program standard, not this lineup, so treat them as a guide to what Green wants rather than what he has.

Hall anchors a reshaped Green Bay

Green Bay brings back more, though still not much: 31.7% of last season's minutes. The constant is Marcus Hall, who started all 30 of his games and shot 40.6% from three on 155 attempts. As a team the Phoenix posted an effective field goal percentage, which counts threes as 1.5 makes, that ranked 38th nationally.

Doug Gottlieb, whose contract was extended through 2030-31 in June, has to replace his backcourt. Preston Ruedinger, a 41.1% 3-point shooter, is gone, and C.J. O'Hara left for Wright State. The newcomers carrying the load are Detroit Mercy transfer Orlando Lovejoy, a downhill guard who made 89.2% of his free throws, and Ohio forward Aidan Hadaway. Transfer Jalen Overway was set to miss the season with a torn ACL suffered in preseason, as of early September reports.

Uelmen leads the Panther newcomers

The new Panthers aren't short on production elsewhere. Four of them, Greyson Uelmen, Tate McCubbin, Isaiah Johnson-Arigu and Ian Smikle, were named to the Missouri Valley preseason watchlist of 33 players.

Uelmen is the likely focal point. He scored 17.1 points a game at North Dakota with a usage rate of 29.3%, meaning he finished a large share of his team's possessions. Johnson-Arigu was efficient off the bench at St. Thomas, and McCubbin made 64 threes at Austin Peay. How quickly they mesh in Green's system is the biggest unknown in the building.

Free throws in a slow game

Possessions should be scarce. Green Bay ranked 312th in pace last season and Northern Iowa 351st, and with fewer trips down the floor, every free point matters more.

That is where Green Bay had an edge last season. Its free throw rate, free throw attempts per field goal attempt, was 41.6%, 35th nationally. Northern Iowa rarely got there itself, ranking 360th, but it also kept opponents off the line, with an opponent free throw rate that ranked 54th. Lovejoy's ability to draw fouls is the test.

The flip side is Green Bay's defense, which ranked 321st in efficiency last season and allowed opponents to shoot 36.1% from three. Unless the newcomers fix that, Northern Iowa's new shooters should find open looks.