Grace University vs Utah Tech prediction: Utah Tech starts its Big Sky era rebuilding around Ethan Potter
Against non-Division I Grace University, the opener is less about the result than about who Utah Tech's mostly new guards turn out to be.
- Utah Tech should control a home game against a non-Division I visitor, with minutes spread across a roster still learning itself.
- Ethan Potter inside: last season's most efficient returning scorer, surrounded by guards who struggled to shoot.
- No spread or total is posted yet; only 21.9% of last season's minutes return, so last season's numbers are a weak guide.
Potter and a lot of new faces
Utah Tech opens its first Big Sky season on Wednesday, Nov. 4, at Burns Arena, with Jon Judkins entering his 22nd season in charge. The program he brings into the new league looks little like last season's 19-15 team: players returning account for just 21.9% of last season's minutes and 27.3% of its points.
The clearest holdover is forward Ethan Potter, listed among the returners. He scored 16.9 points a game last season on 59.9% shooting, with an offensive rating of 130.2. His return wasn't visible on the official roster page, which was cut off, so his status is worth watching. If he plays, the offense likely runs through him near the basket.
Guards who must prove themselves
Last season's backcourt is gone. Jusaun Holt, Chance Trujillo and Noah Bolanga each averaged double figures, and Holt hit 40.6% from three.
Their replacements arrive with thin shooting résumés. Rex Sunderland, a fifth-year guard from Stonehill, started 32 games there and handed out 3.2 assists a game, but made 27.4% of his threes. Alex Dupre comes from Portland State as an 83.9% free throw shooter. Mark Brown Jr. shot 23.3% from three at Valparaiso. A soft opener gives this group room to find its spacing before the schedule stiffens.
What last season's defense leaves behind
Last season Utah Tech held opponents to 30.2% from three, 21st of 365 in Division I, but ranked 313th in defensive rebound rate, the share of opponents' misses it collected. With so few players back, both marks describe a different team. Last season's final adjusted net rating, points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents, ranked 200th. Utah Tech also has an exhibition against Utah Valley on Oct. 17, which could offer an early look at the new rotation.
Key players
- Ethan Potter (Utah Tech): Averaged 16.9 points and 7.8 rebounds last season with an offensive rating of 130.2.
- Rex Sunderland (Utah Tech): Started 32 games at Stonehill last season, averaging 3.2 assists but shooting 27.4% from three.
- Alex Dupre (Utah Tech): Made 83.9% of his free throws at Portland State last season.
- Samuel Ariyibi (Utah Tech): Played 9.9 minutes a game off the bench last season across 32 games.
Numbers that matter
| Returning minutes | 21.9% | Utah Tech brings back little of last season's rotation, so last season's team numbers say little about this one. |
|---|---|---|
| Potter's offensive rating | 130.2 | Last season's mark makes him the anchor of the new offense if he plays. |
| Opponent 3-point % | 30.2% | Last season's three-point defense ranked 21st of 365, though mostly with players now gone. |
| Adjusted net rank | 200th | Last season's final opponent-adjusted rating, the baseline for a rebuilt roster. |
Grace University vs Utah Tech: quick answers
When is Grace University vs Utah Tech?
Wednesday, November 4, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET.