Florida Atlantic vs Wright State prediction: Wright State's paint scoring runs into FAU's shot-blocking wall

Where the points get decided

Wright State won the Horizon League regular-season and tournament titles last season, and it did it without living behind the arc. The Raiders took threes on 33.9% of their shots, 296th in Division I, yet made 36.4% of them, 42nd. They did most of their damage closer in, hitting 54.9% of their twos.

That runs straight into what Florida Atlantic did best. The Owls blocked 13.9% of opponents' two-point tries last season, 15th in the country, and held teams to 48.2% inside the arc, 57th. If FAU's frontcourt can make the Raiders' drives and post touches miserable, Wright State has to shoot more threes than it wants. If the Raiders finish anyway, FAU's defense has little else to fall back on.

The turnover battle favors the Raiders

Ball security was a problem for FAU last season. The Owls gave it away on 17.4% of possessions, 225th, and their own defense rarely took it back: a steal rate of 8.3% ranked 300th. Wright State was more disruptive, stealing the ball on 10.8% of possessions, 103rd.

FAU also played faster, at 70.2 possessions per 40 minutes (64th) against Wright State's 68.5 (139th). More possessions means more chances for those giveaways to pile up, and runouts off steals are the easiest way for the Raiders to score against a team that protects the rim.

Raw numbers versus adjusted ones

Last season's raw results favor Wright State. The Raiders went 23-12 and scored 117.0 points per 100 possessions, 60th nationally, while FAU finished 18-15. Adjust those efficiency numbers for the opponents each team faced, though, and the gap flips. FAU's adjusted net rating (points per 100 possessions, opponent-adjusted) ended at 4.7, 120th, and Wright State's at 2.4, 141st. Opponent adjustment narrows the gap between the two teams.

The Raiders' weakness was the other end. Opponents posted a 51.7% effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) against them, 227th, and made 52.4% of their twos, 239th. FAU made 54.3% of its twos, 98th, so the Owls should find chances inside too.

New faces on both benches

Every number above is from last season, and both rosters have changed. Wright State brought in five transfers, including Green Bay's CJ O'Hara, a preseason All-Horizon first-teamer, plus Nikola Djapa from Colorado State and Ilija Milijaševic from DePaul. Kellen Pickett is the league's preseason Player of the Year, and the Raiders were picked first in the Horizon. Their preseason Pomeroy rating sits at 157, best in the league. They looked sharp in an Oct. 16 exhibition, beating Bellarmine 76-54 after opening on a 14-0 run, and a closed scrimmage against Bowling Green is set for Oct. 25.

FAU, picked 8th in one set of American preseason power rankings, returns seniors Kanaan Carlyle and Jelani Hamilton and adds forward Josh Harris, guard Braeden Speed and freshman guard Felipe Quinones. Harris missed time with an injury last season; no current injury news has surfaced for either team. Both head coaches, Clint Sargent and John Jakus, are in their third seasons.

The tip is listed for 6 p.m. ET, but other listings show 7:30 p.m., so confirm the time before the game.