Fairleigh Dickinson vs Butler prediction: Ronald Nored's remade Butler hosts FDU with a free-throw edge

Nored starts nearly from scratch

Ronald Nored takes over at Butler in his first season as head coach. The Big East's coaches showed him little faith in October: they picked the Bulldogs 11th of 11, with 13 points and no first-place votes. This early-November visit from Fairleigh Dickinson at Hinkle Fieldhouse is one of the first looks at what he has built.

He has built a lot from new parts. Butler returns two starters, Jalen Jackson and Drayton Jones, and added 10 new players. Finley Bizjack left for West Virginia and Jamie Kaiser for Richmond, and Michael Ajayi, Yohan Traore and Yame Butler aren't back. The transfer class includes Christian Moore, Jordan Ellerbee, Treyson Anderson and Eduardo Klafke. Freshmen Herly Brutus, Samu Adler, Marko Maric and Baron Walker join them. Nobody has confirmed a starting five.

Last season's Bulldogs went 16-16, yet their final adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions scored minus allowed, adjusted for opponents) ranked 81st nationally. FDU finished 11-21 and 331st in the same measure. That gap is wide. With this much roster churn, it says more about the programs than about the players taking the floor.

Butler's living at the line

The clearest edge in last season's numbers came at the free-throw line. Butler's free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) was 42.1%, 25th in Division I. Its defense sent opponents to the line at a 24.9% rate, seventh-best in the country.

FDU sat at the other end. Its free throw rate ranked 255th. If Nored keeps any of that physical, foul-drawing identity, Butler gets a steady source of points that FDU's offense did not have last season. Whether the identity survives a coaching change is a fair question.

FDU shoots a lot and misses a lot

Fairleigh Dickinson built its offense on volume from deep. Last season the Knights took 45.5% of their shots from three, 58th-most in the country, but made only 31.0% of them, 325th. Their effective field goal percentage (which counts threes as 1.5 makes) ranked 325th as well.

The defense struggled against the same shot. Opponents hit 36.4% from three against FDU, 338th nationally. Butler rarely leaned on the three last season, so a new-look roster that can shoot would find open looks here. Coach Jack Castleberry's roster includes senior Bol Agu and freshman Diing Maiwen, and Pavle Stosic committed for this season.

Slow pace, contested glass

FDU played at 64.2 possessions per 40 minutes last season, 336th in Division I. Butler ran at 69.4, 92nd. Fewer possessions shrink a talent gap, and that has long been the way an underdog like FDU tries to keep a game close.

The Knights also owned their defensive glass. They grabbed 74.0% of opponents' misses, 28th nationally. Butler rebounded 34.6% of its own misses, 66th. Second chances are where Butler could create separation, and FDU took those away last season.

On availability, Jackson was reported fully cleared for offseason activities after ankle surgery. No newer injury news has surfaced for either team.