Fairfield vs Wisconsin prediction: Wisconsin swapped its stars for shooters. Fairfield gets the first look.

Same blueprint, new shooters

Wisconsin lost the two players who ran its offense. Nick Boyd (20.7 points per game) graduated and John Blackwell (19.1) is now at Duke, and the Badgers return only 44.5% of last season's minutes. Last season's team numbers are a loose guide to this roster.

The style should survive, though. Wisconsin took 52.1% of its shots from three last season, seventh-most in the country, and Greg Gard restocked with shooters. Eian Elmer hit 42.9% from deep at Miami (OH), and Trey Autry made 84 threes at George Washington. Returning guard Braeden Carrington shot 40.1% from three. He is eligible after a California court granted an injunction on Oct. 20, but the NCAA is appealing, so his status carries legal risk all season.

Fairfield's defense pushed opponents off the arc last season. Only 35.7% of opponent shots were threes, 302nd in attempt rate, which is among the lower rates in the country. The question is whether a rebuilt Stags roster can keep that up against a lineup built to fire away.

Fairfield's scoring went out the door

The Stags went 21-13 last season and bring back just 42.8% of their scoring. Braden Sparks, their leading scorer at 17.2 points per game, is gone. So is forward Brandon Benjamin, now at Boston College, who averaged 10.4 rebounds.

That loss hurts more because Fairfield could not shoot. Its effective field goal percentage, which counts threes 1.5 times, was 49.1%, 305th in Division I. The best returner is Declan Wucherpfennig, a guard who averaged 8.5 rebounds and posted a 122.6 offensive rating. The key arrival is Qadir Martin from Mercyhurst, a forward who blocked 2.4 shots per game.

The glass and the size gap

Fairfield's best path to staying close is second chances. The Stags rebounded 36.1% of their own misses last season, 33rd nationally. Wisconsin cleaned up 71.8% of opponent misses, which ranked 94th. That matchup is respectable on both sides, but Benjamin's departure leaves the Stags' strength unproven.

Size favors Wisconsin. Weighted by minutes, the Badgers' roster averages 79.7 inches to Fairfield's 77.1, and Gard called this group "as big as we've been in a long time." Nolan Winter started all three exhibitions after offseason ankle surgery, with Hofstra transfer Victory Onuetu beside him. Garlock, a 7-footer, was listed as day-to-day after a practice injury and sat out the Oct. 27 exhibition win over Oklahoma State. There has been no update since Oct. 28. Austin Rapp's status is also unclear: reports conflict on whether he is dealing with a hand or a knee injury, and he has not been confirmed healthy.

Few giveaways, few freebies

Wisconsin protected the ball better than almost anyone last season, turning it over on 13.4% of possessions, 10th in the country. Fairfield's defense forced turnovers at a middling rate, ranking 165th, so steals are unlikely to bail the Stags out.

At the line, the gap is even wider. Wisconsin made 78.8% of its free throws, sixth nationally. Fairfield almost never got there: its free throw rate, free throw attempts per field goal attempt, ranked 348th. Neither offense lived at the stripe, but the Badgers turn the trips they get into points.

By tip, both teams will have played their openers. Wisconsin faces Denver first, and Fairfield hosts Vermont on Nov. 5. Those games will show how much of these patterns carried over.

What to watch

• Whether Garlock and Rapp are available, and how much of the frontcourt load falls on Winter.
• Carrington's role while the NCAA's appeal is pending.
• Fairfield's offensive rebounding without Benjamin, and whether Martin's shot-blocking changes how Wisconsin attacks the rim.
• Wisconsin's three-point volume against a defense that limited attempts last season.