Evansville vs Middle Tennessee prediction: Middle Tennessee's rebuilt shooters get a soft Evansville perimeter to test
Both programs turned over most of their rosters, but Middle Tennessee's three-point volume and Evansville's three-point defense from last season point to a familiar pressure point.
- Middle Tennessee, at home with a deeper transfer class, should control a game built around threes, unless Evansville's AJ Casey can drag it inside.
- Watch Middle Tennessee's new guards against an Evansville defense that allowed 37.0% from three last season, 353rd of 365.
- No line has posted yet. Last season's adjusted net ratings had Middle Tennessee 159th and Evansville 305th.
Threes against a soft perimeter
Two teams that look almost nothing like last season's versions open their November against each other in Murfreesboro. The clearest clue to how it plays out sits in a matchup of last season's styles, even as the names changed.
Middle Tennessee lived behind the arc last season, taking 45.9% of its shots from three, 50th in Division I. Evansville could not defend that shot. Opponents hit 37.0% of their threes against the Aces, 353rd of 365. Nick McDevitt, in his ninth season, reloaded the shooting through the portal. Eli Rice made 39% of his 105 attempts at Penn State, and Kevin de Kovachich started every game at North Alabama while scoring 11.8 points a night. If Evansville's perimeter defense hasn't changed under fifth-year coach David Ragland, the Blue Raiders will get the looks they want.
Two rosters built from scratch
Treat last season's team numbers as a rough sketch. Middle Tennessee returns just 24.7% of its minutes, and Evansville brings back 32.4%. The Blue Raiders lost frontcourt anchor Torey Alston to VCU and leading scorer Kamari Lands. The Aces lost starters Leif Moeller to UTEP and Joshua Hughes to USC.
Still, the gap at the program level was wide. In adjusted efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents), Middle Tennessee finished last season at a net 0.7, 159th nationally. Evansville finished at -13, 305th. That gap tilts toward the home side until either roster shows otherwise.
Casey has to carry the Aces
Evansville went 7-25 last season, and its offense was the main problem. It scored 98.9 points per 100 possessions, 353rd in the country. The best piece left from that group is forward AJ Casey, who averaged 13.5 points on a 24.4% usage rate with a 110.4 offensive rating. He is the most proven scorer either team returns.
He has help inside now. Gustav Winther arrives from Northern Illinois after posting a 64.5% effective field goal percentage (a shooting measure that counts threes 1.5 times), mostly around the rim. Max Langenfeld, a Florida Atlantic transfer with three years of eligibility left, adds depth up front. The Aces' path is to play through Casey and Winther and keep the game out of a three-point contest, given how their perimeter defense fared last season.
Size, history and a Kansas detour
Evansville is the bigger team on this season's roster, with a minutes-weighted average height of 79.5 inches against Middle Tennessee's 77.7. The Blue Raiders are pushing back with Kaleb Siler, a 6-10, 250-pound senior returning to Division I, and holdover center Luka Jovanovic, who shot 69.8% in a reserve role.
The schedule adds a wrinkle. Middle Tennessee plays at Kansas on Nov. 6, four days before this game, so the Blue Raiders could return home bruised or sharpened by a real test. Recent history favors them. They beat Evansville 80-63 at home in 2024 and won 77-72 at Evansville last November.
Key players
- Jahvin Carter (Middle Tennessee): The top holdover averaged 10.8 points and 3.5 assists last season with a 109.1 offensive rating.
- Kevin de Kovachich (Middle Tennessee): He started all 30 games last season at North Alabama, averaging 11.8 points and 1.5 steals.
- Eli Rice (Middle Tennessee): He shot 39% from three on 105 attempts at Penn State last season.
- Ofri Naveh (Middle Tennessee): He started all 32 games at Oral Roberts last season, averaging 11.2 points and 6.0 rebounds.
- AJ Casey (Evansville): He led the returners last season with 13.5 points and 5.9 rebounds on 51.3% shooting.
- Gustav Winther (Evansville): He posted a 64.5% effective field goal percentage at Northern Illinois last season.
- Bryce Quinet (Evansville): He averaged 8.7 points and 2.4 assists last season but shot 30.3% from three.
Numbers that matter
| Evansville opp. 3P% (last season) | 37.0% | That ranked 353rd of 365, the weakness Middle Tennessee's shooters will test. |
|---|---|---|
| MTSU 3PA rate (last season) | 45.9% | Middle Tennessee ranked 50th in three-point attempt share, a style its transfers fit. |
| MTSU returning minutes | 24.7% | Most of last season's production is gone, so last season's team numbers are only a loose guide. |
| Adj. net rank (last season) | 159th | Middle Tennessee's adjusted net efficiency far outranked Evansville's 305th. |
| Evansville offense (last season) | 98.9 | Points per 100 possessions, 353rd nationally, for a team that went 7-25. |
Evansville vs Middle Tennessee: quick answers
When is Evansville vs Middle Tennessee?
Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET.