Elon vs George Washington prediction: George Washington's near-total rebuild faces Elon's returning shooting guards

Foggy Bottom starts over

Chris Caputo's program went 19-16 last season and then watched nearly all of it leave. GW returns just 12.2% of last season's minutes and 10.3% of its points, so last year's team numbers describe a roster that no longer exists. Trey Autry left for Wisconsin. Rafael Castro, the interior anchor who averaged 15.3 points and 9.1 rebounds, is gone too.

The one real holdover is guard Jean Aranguren, who averaged 8.2 points last season. He suffered a head injury in the Oct. 16 exhibition against Georgetown and was still listed as questionable as of Oct. 30, with no newer update. GW has not said whether he will play.

The rebuild leans on transfers. Andrew Phillips carried a heavy load at Lafayette, scoring 13.9 points a game. Felix Kossaras was efficient in a smaller role at Colorado, posting a 60.8% effective field goal percentage (a shooting measure where threes count 1.5 times). GW was still picked fifth in the A-10 preseason poll, a sign voters trust the talent more than the continuity.

Elon keeps its shooters

Elon also turned over most of its roster, returning 27.9% of last season's minutes. The difference is who stayed. Bryson Cokley shot 39.2% from three last season and posted an offensive rating of 122.1, the most efficient line of anyone back. Randall Pettus II started 31 games and scored 11.0 points a night.

The hole is Chandler Cuthrell, who scored 19.8 points a game and used more than a third of Elon's possessions when on the floor. No returner has carried that kind of load. Cam Thrower, who shot 41.9% from three at Penn, adds another perimeter option. Elon opens Nov. 2 at Columbia, so Billy Taylor's group will have some live reps before this trip.

A defense that bled threes

Elon's problem last season was the other end. Its defense ranked 302nd in Division I in points allowed per 100 possessions, and opponents shot 35.9% from three against it, 318th nationally. Teams also fired away freely, which is a dangerous combination.

GW, under the same coach, lived beyond the arc last season, taking 46.9% of its shots from three, 35th most in the country. With a new cast the volume may not carry over exactly, but Caputo's system invites threes, and Elon has not shown it can take them away.

Size and second chances

GW's rebuilt roster is bigger. Its minutes-weighted average height is 78.6 inches against Elon's 76.3. Boston College transfer Aidan Shaw, who grabbed 6.2 rebounds a game there with 1.2 blocks, gives GW a body inside to replace some of what Castro did.

That matters because Elon struggled on its own glass last season, ranking 304th in defensive rebound percentage, while GW ranked 38th in offensive rebound percentage. The caution for GW is ball security: it coughed it up on 18.9% of possessions last season, 309th nationally. A sloppy night with a new backcourt is the clearest path for Elon to stay close.

Home stretch and the market

This is the third of five straight home games for GW, after Navy on Nov. 2 and Hampton on Nov. 7, so the Colonials should have two regular-season games to sort out rotations. Elon is on the road in a non-conference game.

No spread or total has been posted yet. When one arrives, expect it to lean on last season's gap: GW finished 79th in adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) and Elon 228th. Given how few players either team returns, those ratings are a loose guide, and the first couple of November games will say more.