Eastern Michigan vs Xavier prediction: Xavier's near-total rebuild faces its first real test against Eastern Michigan

Two rosters built from scratch

Most of what Xavier did last season walked out the door. Players on this season's roster logged just 13.1% of last season's minutes, so the 15-18 record from Richard Pitino's first year says little about the team taking the floor Friday. The departures included Tre Carroll, who scored 17.8 points a game, and Malik Messina-Moore, who started all 33 games.

Eastern Michigan is rebuilding too, under a new coach. Billy Donlon, a former Michigan assistant who was most recently at Clemson, took over in March. His roster returns 34.4% of last season's minutes from a 10-21 team. That is far more continuity than Xavier has, but it is continuity from a team that finished 279th of 365 in net efficiency.

With both teams this new, last season's team ratings are a weak guide. The players are the better one.

Dominguez and the shooting question

Pitino's headline addition is Ruben Dominguez from Texas A&M. He made 40% of 215 three-point attempts last season, and his offensive rating of 133.5 (points produced per 100 possessions used) was the best of any player arriving at either school. Jovan Milicevic, Xavier's one meaningful returner, shot 42.9% from deep, and Pitino has said Milicevic could play the four. That gives Xavier two floor-spacing shooters in the frontcourt and backcourt.

The defense Eastern Michigan brings is the one part of last season's profile worth respecting. Opponents shot 32.5% from three against the Eagles, 108th nationally. The Eagles' offense was the problem: they ranked 319th in offensive efficiency and shot just 32.2% from three. Gregory Lawson II, who hit 43.2% from deep in limited minutes, is the returner most likely to change that.

Size and the paint

Xavier is bigger. Weighted by minutes, its roster averages 79.5 inches against 77.1 for Eastern Michigan. Pitino called Mike Nwoko a true center addition, and Nikos Chitikoudis (7.7 rebounds a game at Robert Morris) and Rolyns Aligbe (7.4 at Southern Illinois) add bodies on the glass.

Eastern Michigan's answer inside is Mohammad Habhab. He played 36 minutes a night last season and averaged 8.3 rebounds with 1.4 blocks. Efficient scoring was the issue: his effective field goal percentage, which counts threes as 1.5 makes, was 41.3%. The Eagles also lost Godslove Nwabude, their most efficient interior finisher, so Habhab may face Xavier's size with less help.

What the exhibitions showed

Both teams have already played someone good. Xavier won an exhibition at Tennessee 86-70 on Oct. 15, pulling away with a second-half scoring surge. A road win over an SEC program is an encouraging first look at a roster this new.

Eastern Michigan opened Donlon's tenure with an 87-62 exhibition loss at Michigan on Oct. 11. The Eagles trailed by 11 at halftime before Michigan pulled away. Sencire Harris, a transfer who played at Cincinnati last season, appeared in that game.

Neither team has reported an injury or eligibility issue in the past three weeks. The tip time has not been confirmed.

What to watch

• Chance Westry's playmaking. He averaged 5.6 assists at UAB with a 121.1 offensive rating, and he will likely run Xavier's offense.
• Pace. Xavier ranked 44th in possessions per 40 minutes last season, while Eastern Michigan sat 182nd.
• Jabri Fitzpatrick's jump. He scored 15.0 a game at New Haven and now faces a Big East roster on the road.