Eastern Illinois vs Iowa prediction: Iowa begins life after Bennett Stirtz against Eastern Illinois

The hole Stirtz left

Iowa's run to the South Region final ended with a 71-59 loss to Illinois, and the man who carried it is gone. Bennett Stirtz averaged 19.8 points in 37.8 minutes a night last season, and the Hawkeyes now return 45.4% of last season's points. Ben McCollum enters his second year in Iowa City with a roster that has been substantially rebuilt.

The pieces left behind are efficient rather than high-volume. Cooper Koch started all 37 games and shot 40.2% from three. Illinois State transfer Ty'Reek Coleman brings the most scoring of the newcomers, after hitting 41.6% from deep. Last season's Iowa offense finished 15th in adjusted efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents). That was built on Stirtz's creation, so the real question for Iowa is who handles the ball late in the shot clock.

Few possessions, tight margins

McCollum's Iowa played slower than anyone in the country last season, finishing 365th of 365 in pace. Eastern Illinois sat near the middle, ranked 233rd. Expect Iowa to set the tempo at Carver-Hawkeye.

That matters for anyone reading the eventual line. Fewer possessions shrink the gap a better team can build, and a rebuilt Iowa offense still finding its rhythm in early November may not pull away as fast as last season's 21st-ranked adjusted net rating suggests. The tip time is still listed as to be announced.

Where Eastern Illinois can bite

Marty Simmons's Panthers had a few defensive strengths last season. Last season the Panthers ranked 46th in forced turnover rate (opponent turnovers per 100 possessions) and held opponents to 31.4% from three, 45th nationally. That perimeter defense is the one place they could slow a newly built Iowa backcourt.

The trouble is the other end. Eastern Illinois finished 345th in adjusted offense, and its effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) ranked 341st. The Panthers also gave the ball away often, ranking 288th in turnover rate, while Iowa forced turnovers at the 19th-highest rate in the country. Eastern Illinois went 13-20 last season and finished eighth in the OVC. Its roster now includes several junior college transfers and four freshmen.

Size and the glass

Iowa's lineup averaged 79.3 inches in height weighted by minutes, against 76.6 for Eastern Illinois. The Panthers were a weak defensive rebounding team last season, ranked 322nd in defensive rebound rate.

That sets up Saint Mary's transfer Andrew McKeever, who pulled down 9.1 rebounds a game last season, and returning starter Cam Manyawu, who shot 63.1% from the floor. Iowa's own weakness is protecting the rim: its block rate ranked 338th. But Eastern Illinois made just 47.3% of its twos, 342nd in the country, so the Hawkeyes may not be tested inside much.

After this game Iowa faces Virginia Tech in Sioux City on Nov. 10. Eastern Illinois goes to Illinois on Nov. 20.