Detroit Mercy vs Xavier prediction: Xavier's seven-transfer rebuild faces a Detroit Mercy team starting over too
Both rosters were remade over the summer, but Xavier's imports bring last season's shooting and size, while Detroit Mercy has to replace its two best scorers.
- Xavier's transfer-heavy rotation should control the game with shooting and size against a Detroit Mercy team rebuilding its backcourt.
- Tyler Spratt and the Titans' rebuilt guard group against Xavier's new point guard Chance Westry, who struggled through the exhibitions.
- No line is posted yet. Last season's final adjusted ratings had Xavier 96th and Detroit Mercy 222nd nationally.
A roster built in one summer
Xavier has had a lot of roster turnover. Players on this season's roster played just 13.1% of the Musketeers' minutes last season, and seven transfers arrived to fill the gap under second-year coach Richard Pitino. That makes last season's 15-18 record a poor guide to this team. The more useful question is what the newcomers did elsewhere.
The answer is encouraging. Chance Westry averaged 15.5 points and 5.6 assists at UAB. Ruben Dominguez made 40% of his threes on 215 attempts at Texas A&M. Nikos Chitikoudis pulled down 7.7 rebounds a game at Robert Morris. Captains Jovan Milićević and Mike Nwoko, both preseason All-BIG EAST third-team picks, anchor the group, and Milićević led the preseason finale against Kent State with 17 points.
The returning-minutes figure doesn't count Filip Borovicanin. He averaged 10.8 points last season, and an Oct. 13 executive order from Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine, following a July preliminary injunction, cleared him to play. He started the exhibition at Tennessee. His status is not fully settled, though. The NCAA is in conflict with the state order, and an Ohio Supreme Court appeal from other plaintiffs is pending.
Detroit Mercy lost its backcourt
The Titans bring back more than Xavier, with 38.7% of last season's minutes, but they lost their two leading scorers. Orlando Lovejoy took his 15.9 points a game to Green Bay. TJ Nadeau, who made 46.7% of his threes, left for Tulane. Coach Mark Montgomery added transfers from Wayne State, Spring Arbor, Augusta and the junior college ranks.
The offense now runs through Tyler Spratt, a preseason All-Horizon second-teamer who started 28 of 32 games last season. Senior Ayden Carter is the team's leader. The Titans beat Grand Valley State 90-80 in an October scrimmage and were picked seventh in the Horizon League. A one-year NCAA postseason ban rules out every tournament in 2026-27, so the regular-season title is the only prize on offer.
Threes against a soft middle
Last season's Detroit Mercy profile points to a problem for the Titans. They rarely shot threes: their 3-point attempt rate (share of shots taken from deep) ranked 342nd of 365. They also made just 48.8% of their twos, which ranked 313th. A team that lives inside but doesn't finish there struggles against bigger opponents.
Xavier will be much bigger. The Musketeers' minutes-weighted average height is 79.5 inches, compared with 76.4 for Detroit Mercy. Last season's Xavier interior defense was poor, but most of that roster is gone.
At the other end, Detroit Mercy's defense let opponents take plenty of threes; it ranked 82nd in opponent 3-point attempt rate. That suits a Xavier group built around Dominguez and Milićević, who shot 42.9% from deep last season.
Tempo and the free-throw line
Both teams played quickly last season. Xavier averaged 70.8 possessions per 40 minutes (44th in pace), and Detroit Mercy was 89th, so expect plenty of possessions. Last season's numbers suggest neither team will gain much at the line. Xavier ranked 342nd in free throw rate (free throws attempted per shot), though the new roster may change that. If the game stays close, Detroit Mercy's 77.5% free-throw shooting, 22nd nationally last season, gives the Titans an edge late. Chitikoudis, who shot 39.6% at the line at Robert Morris, could be a target for fouls.
The schedule matters too. Xavier faces Mississippi State on Nov. 13 at the Greenbrier, so this game comes just before a bigger test.
Key players
- Jovan Milićević (Xavier): Last season he made 42.9% of his threes and averaged 12.4 points, the most production of any returning Musketeer.
- Chance Westry (Xavier): He averaged 15.5 points and 5.6 assists at UAB last season but shot 24.1% from three.
- Ruben Dominguez (Xavier): Last season he posted an offensive rating of 133.5 on 40% three-point shooting.
- Filip Borovicanin (Xavier): He averaged 10.8 points and 7.4 rebounds last season, and he is cleared to play while the legal fight over his eligibility continues.
- Tyler Spratt (Detroit Mercy): Detroit Mercy's top returner averaged 9.9 points and made 38.5% of his threes last season.
- Lance Stone (Detroit Mercy): He shot 87.3% at the line last season but posted an effective field goal percentage of just 41.
- London Maiden (Detroit Mercy): He made 54.5% of his shots last season, all of them inside the arc, in 15.1 minutes a game.
Numbers that matter
| Xavier returning minutes | 13.1% | Most of last season's 15-18 team is gone, so the transfers' numbers from other schools say more about this team. |
|---|---|---|
| Detroit Mercy 2-point %, last season | 48.8% | It ranked 313th, a weakness that could get worse against Xavier's size advantage. |
| Detroit Mercy 3-point attempt rate, last season | 30.9% | Ranked 342nd, the Titans rarely looked for threes, which leaves them depending on interior scoring. |
| Dominguez 3-point %, last season | 40% | He made 86 threes at Texas A&M, and Detroit Mercy's defense allowed plenty of attempts. |
| Detroit Mercy free throw %, last season | 77.5% | It ranked 22nd nationally, an edge for the Titans if the game is close late. |
Detroit Mercy vs Xavier: quick answers
When is Detroit Mercy vs Xavier?
Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET.