Coppin State vs George Mason prediction: George Mason's foul-line edge looms over a mismatched Coppin State visit
Last season's adjusted ratings ranked Mason 97th and Coppin 363rd, and the gap shows up most at the free-throw line and in ball security.
- George Mason should control a slow, half-court game at home, while Coppin State's turnovers and fouling decide the size of the margin.
- Mason's drive-and-draw offense against a Coppin defense that sent opponents to the line more often than almost anyone last season.
- No spread or total yet. Last season's net efficiency ranks of 89th for Mason and 361st for Coppin frame what's coming.
A gulf in last season's ratings
Coppin State opens its November trip to Fairfax carrying the weight of a 7-24 season. George Mason went 23-10. Both teams have reshuffled their rosters, so last season's numbers are a rough guide, but the distance between them was enormous. Mason finished 97th of 365 in adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions scored minus allowed, adjusted for opponents). Coppin finished 363rd.
The last meeting matched that gap. Mason won 93-55 at home on Nov. 20, 2024. Tony Skinn, now in his fourth season, has built a program that expects to handle games like this one.
Mason lives at the line
The clearest edge is the free-throw line. Free throw rate measures free-throw attempts per field-goal attempt, and Mason's was 42.0% last season, 26th nationally. Coppin's defense allowed an opponent free throw rate of 42.0%, which ranked 333rd.
That combination favors a team that wants to grind. Mason played at 64.3 possessions per 40 minutes, 330th in pace, so it rarely needs to run. If Coppin fouls the way it did last season, the Patriots can build a margin without pushing tempo.
Coppin's ball-security problem
Coppin's offense was the bigger issue last season. Its turnover rate of 22.3% per 100 possessions ranked 361st, and its effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) of 46.3% ranked 354th. Mason doesn't force many mistakes, ranking 263rd in forced turnover rate, so Coppin may hold on to the ball better than usual here. That would still leave it shooting against a Mason defense that held opponents to 32.6% from three last season.
Coppin did have one strength on defense. It forced turnovers at an 18.0% clip, 121st nationally, against a Mason offense that sat 153rd in turnover rate.
New faces on both benches
Mason added Baraka Okojie as a transfer from Mercer, along with freshman Shane Pendergrass, and has named freshman Emmanuel Kanga as a key contributor. Senior guard Brayden O'Connor, hurt on opening night last season, is fully cleared and can prepare for this season.
Coppin coach Larry Stewart has turned over his roster too. Departures this spring included Ryan Archey, Toby Nnadozie, Derrius Ward and Jonathan Dunn. Incoming transfers included Favor Aire from Bryant, Baasil Saunders, Josiah Brown and Hussain Williams, though that list hasn't been confirmed as current. The program was barred from last season's MEAC and NCAA tournaments over Academic Progress Rate penalties, and it isn't clear whether that affects this season.
Where the money is on Coppin State vs George Mason
On the Kalshi moneyline: Coppin State: 50% of bets, 4% of the money; George Mason: 50% of bets, 96% of the money.
Numbers that matter
| Mason free throw rate, last season | 42.0% | Ranked 26th nationally, and Coppin allowed the same opponent rate, 333rd on defense. |
|---|---|---|
| Coppin turnover rate, last season | 22.3% | Ranked 361st of 365, the clearest weakness in Coppin's offense. |
| Mason pace, last season | 64.3 | Possessions per 40 minutes, 330th nationally, a sign Mason will try to slow this game down. |
| Adjusted net efficiency rank, last season | 363rd | Coppin's end-of-year rating, against Mason's 97th. |
Coppin State vs George Mason: quick answers
When is Coppin State vs George Mason?
Friday, November 6, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET.
Where is the money on Coppin State vs George Mason?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Coppin State: 50% of bets, 4% of the money; George Mason: 50% of bets, 96% of the money.