Charleston Southern vs Wake Forest prediction: Wake Forest's transfer rebuild gets an early test from Charleston Southern

Two teams starting over

Forget last season's box scores. Wake Forest brings back just 4.5% of last season's minutes, and Charleston Southern returns 19.3%. When rosters turn over that completely, last year's team numbers describe programs, not the players who will take the floor in Winston-Salem on Tuesday, Nov. 10.

The departures tell the story. Wake lost Juke Harris, who scored 21.4 points per game before leaving for Tennessee. Charleston Southern lost A'lahn Sumler (19.0 points, now at Pittsburgh) and Brycen Blaine (17.2 points, now at East Carolina). The difference is what came back in return: Steve Forbes restocked with five transfers who started or played real minutes elsewhere, while the Buccaneers list no Division I transfers in our data and lean on an 11-member incoming class plus a few holdovers.

Wake's imported backcourt

Kennedy is the engine. He started all 34 games at Merrimack last season and carried a usage rate of 29.5%, meaning nearly three in ten possessions ended in his hands. He is a driver more than a shooter, with an effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) of 46.6%.

Justin Ray supplies the spacing Kennedy lacks. Ray hit 42% of 157 threes at Monmouth and should start on the wing for now. That job was meant to be shared with Jamari McDowell, the Kansas transfer, but McDowell aggravated plantar fasciitis in the Georgetown exhibition. Forbes said he would be out "probably a couple of weeks at least," and no newer update had surfaced as of Oct. 31. Center Antonio Dorn, who missed the Georgetown game, was cleared for Wake's next exhibition in mid-October.

Up front, Ring Nyeri posted a 59.2% effective field goal mark at Northern Colorado, giving Wake an efficient finisher next to the guards.

What's left of the Buccaneer style

Under Saah Nimley, Charleston Southern played fast and fired away last season: sixth in the country in pace and eighth in the share of shots taken from three. It also had glaring holes. The Bucs shot 64.7% at the free-throw line, 362nd of 365, and forced turnovers at the 363rd-ranked rate.

The question is whether that identity survives a roster this new. Jacob Taylor is the most experienced returner, a guard who started 24 games and made 36.1% of his threes. Lase Olalere, a forward who shot 66.3% from the field and blocked 1.5 shots a game, gives the Bucs an interior presence. Beyond them, much of the rotation is unproven at this level.

Home floor and history

The setting favors Wake. The Demon Deacons are 74-17 at LJVM Coliseum since 2021, and this is a Salute to Service Night home game on ACCNX. The only recent meeting went Wake's way, 71-56, in November 2023.

The caution flag is Wake's preseason form: it lost its home exhibition to Georgetown, and the rotation is still sorting itself out without McDowell. Wake also opens against Maryland Eastern Shore on Nov. 2, which will give Forbes one real game to evaluate before this one.

What to watch

• Kennedy's shot selection: whether he gets downhill or settles against a defense that chased opponents off the three-point line last season.
• Charleston Southern's tempo: a fast, three-heavy Bucs attack would create more possessions and more variance.
• Wake's wing minutes: who fills McDowell's role behind Ray, and whether Dorn is in the rotation.
• Free throws late: if the game stays close, Pintelon's 85.4% mark last season at Florida Atlantic matters.