Central Arkansas vs Ole Miss prediction: Ole Miss's nine newcomers face Central Arkansas's three-point barrage

A rebuild with open questions

Ole Miss went 15-20 last season, and Chris Beard answered by turning the roster over. Only 29.7% of last season's minutes return, and Beard spent media day talking about building chemistry around nine new players. SEC media picked the Rebels 13th in the league.

The headliner is Corey Stephenson, who averaged 18.0 points at Florida International and shot 39.5% from three. As of Oct. 13, Beard was fielding "ongoing eligibility questions" about Stephenson and center Micah Handlogten, with no ruling made public. Handlogten was missed in the Oct. 15 exhibition loss to Alabama, and his status remains unresolved. With so few returning minutes, last season's team numbers say little about this Ole Miss team, so it is the incoming players who matter most here.

The exhibition offered a glimpse. Ole Miss lost 92-84, but after trailing by 18 midway through the second half it closed to within three in the final three minutes.

Central Arkansas lives behind the arc

The Bears went 22-12 last season and built their offense on volume from deep. Threes made up 49.2% of their shots, 20th-most in Division I, and they hit 35.0% of them. Their effective field goal percentage, a shooting measure that counts threes as worth 1.5 twos, ranked 71st.

Their defense allowed even more threes than their offense took. Opponents took 52.6% of their shots from deep, the second-highest share in the country. Expect plenty of threes at both ends unless Ole Miss's new backcourt decides to attack inside.

A soft middle to attack

That is where this game should tilt. Central Arkansas ranked 350th in opponent two-point percentage last season and 327th in block rate, so it rarely altered shots at the rim. Ole Miss is the bigger team, with a minutes-weighted average height of 78.4 inches against 77.0 for the Bears.

Forwards Roman Siulepa, a Pittsburgh transfer, and Santiago Trouet, from Arizona State, should get chances around the basket. Siulepa found foul trouble against Alabama, though. The Bears do clean up their misses: their defensive rebound rate ranked 32nd, which limits second chances even when Ole Miss controls the paint.

Steals against a new backcourt

The Bears' defense makes its living on takeaways. Their steal rate ranked 27th last season, and that pressure will test guards who have played only exhibition minutes together.

Point guard Clark, a Seton Hall transfer, ran an offense that used a lot of possessions last season at Seton Hall, posting a 25.3% usage rate with 4.9 assists per game. Returner Ilias Kamardine started all 35 games last season and handled the ball too. Patton Pinkins is the steadiest returner, a 42.6% three-point shooter last season who posted an offensive rating of 132.1.

What to watch

• Whether Stephenson and Handlogten are cleared before tip.
• Ole Miss's two-point attempts against the Bears' weak rim protection.
• Central Arkansas's three-point volume, and whether the Rebels let them shoot.
• Turnovers in the Ole Miss backcourt against Bears pressure.
• This is the second of four straight home games for Ole Miss; Central Arkansas visits Arkansas on Nov. 13.