Bryant vs Providence prediction: Providence's transfer-built Friars face Bryant with two players still in court

A roster built in one summer

Bryan Hodgson took over a Providence program that went 15-18 last season, then replaced nearly all of it. Players on this roster account for only 12.6% of last season's Friars minutes. The group now includes nine transfers and three freshmen, and the Big East coaches still project it fifth in the league.

Last season's numbers belong to Kim English's team more than this one. Those Friars ranked 40th in adjusted offense (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) and 165th in adjusted defense. With this little carryover, treat both as background.

Ryan Mela is the holdover who matters. He averaged 9.9 points last season and sits in the projected starting group. The scoring now comes from elsewhere. Ryan Sabol averaged 18.9 points at Buffalo and made 40.3% of his threes on 303 attempts, the kind of volume shooter who can carry an offense still learning its own sets. Malik Mack arrives from Georgetown after averaging 13.6 points. Samson Aletan, a Yale transfer center, blocked 1.4 shots a game and inherits the rim-protection job Oswin Erhunmwunse left behind when he transferred to Creighton.

The courtroom and the trainer's room

Providence's depth depends partly on a legal fight. The NCAA denied waivers for Pinion and Simpson at staff level and on appeal, and on Oct. 22 a Rhode Island judge denied their request for a temporary restraining order. They filed for a preliminary injunction on Oct. 29 and asked for oral arguments on either Nov. 6 or Nov. 11. The later date falls after this game, so the case may not resolve before tip-off.

Dink Pate is gone for good, having withdrawn from school to re-sign with his G League team. Going the other way, the Friars added Elijah Saunders on Oct. 29, a fifth-year player granted eligibility through a case in California.

Two transfers carry health questions with no update since late October. Devin Vanterpool, who averaged 15.8 points at Florida Atlantic last season, missed the Oct. 24 exhibition against Georgia Tech with an ankle/foot issue and was aiming to be ready for the opener against Maine. Sabol, dealing with a shoulder issue, was seen warming up before that same exhibition. Neither status has been confirmed since.

Bryant lives behind the arc

Jamion Christian is in his second season at Bryant, and his first team had a clear identity: shoot threes. The Bulldogs took 47.8% of their shots from deep last season, 27th in the country, but made only 30.4%, which ranked 340th. Bryant returns 26.7% of its minutes, so that profile may change.

The returners split in opposite directions. Ty Tabales, the primary ball handler, shot 26.4% on 178 attempts. Keegan Harvey was the efficient one, hitting 40% from deep with an effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) of 60.6. New Haven transfer Andre Pasha adds a shooter who made 35.1% of his threes. Bryant also lost its leading scorer, Timofei Rudovskii, to Pittsburgh. If Tabales keeps firing at last season's rate, Providence's new perimeter defenders get plenty of chances to rebound misses and run.

Tempo and giveaways

Bryant played slowly last season, though with so little roster carryover that may not hold. Last season the Bulldogs played at 64.6 possessions per 40 minutes, 319th nationally, while English's Providence team ran at 71.9, 19th. Hodgson's preferred speed hasn't shown up in a regular-season game yet, which makes the first few minutes a useful read on how many possessions this game will hold.

Ball security was Bryant's other weak spot. The Bulldogs turned it over on 20.1% of possessions last season, 348th in Division I. Last season's Friars barely pressured anyone, ranking 357th in forced turnover rate. If Hodgson's rebuilt group defends more aggressively, that Bryant weakness becomes the cleanest path to a lopsided score.

What to watch

• Sabol's shoulder and workload: a full night from Providence's top shooter changes the offense.
• Vanterpool's status: whether he plays after missing the Georgia Tech exhibition.
• Tabales' shot selection: Bryant needs Harvey and Pasha taking the threes.
• Saunders and the eligibility case: how much depth Providence has by tip-off.