Bradley vs Davidson prediction: Bradley's 10-newcomer rebuild opens on the road at Davidson

A roster built from scratch

The biggest number in this game is one Bradley can't change before tipoff. Players on this season's Braves roster accounted for just 13.0% of last season's minutes. The program lists 10 newcomers joining five returners, and the departures cut deep: Jaquan Johnson, who averaged 16.9 points, is now at Iowa State.

Davidson is no model of stability either, but it brings back 45.0% of last season's minutes. That gap matters more in the second game of November than it will in February.

Last season's final adjusted efficiency ratings (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) had these teams nearly level. Davidson finished with a net mark of 5.4, Bradley 4.7. For Bradley especially, those ratings describe a team that mostly no longer exists, so they are a weak guide here.

Who carries Bradley now

Brian Wardle, entering his 12th season, has to build an offense around transfers. Trevon Payton is the shooter to know: he made 47.1% of his threes at Arkansas-Pine Bluff last season while starting all 32 games. Xander Alarie gives the Braves a frontcourt presence after averaging 10.3 points and 7.4 rebounds at Northeastern.

The most experienced returner, Timoty van der Knaap, logged 22.9 minutes a game last season but shot 23.1% from three. Bradley was picked sixth in the Missouri Valley preseason poll, and Wardle sounded like a coach who knows the timeline. "We are not ready yet for real games," he said around Oct. 28. "We've still got a lot of work to do."

Davidson's slow grind

Davidson played at one of the slowest tempos in the country last season, 64.6 possessions per 40 minutes, 319th of 365. Fewer possessions means fewer chances for a talented but unfamiliar opponent to string together runs.

The Wildcats' defense held opponents to 32.4% from three last season (105th) and blocked 12.4% of opponents' two-point tries, 41st nationally. A new Bradley lineup still learning its spacing faces both problems at once.

On offense, Davidson leans on forward Josh Scovens, who returns after averaging 11.1 points with a 119.4 offensive rating. Nick Janowski arrives after scoring 16.1 a game at St. Thomas-Minnesota and should take on a large share of the shots left by departed guards Parker Friedrichsen and Roberts Blums.

The free-throw line

Davidson's weak spot last season was the stripe. The Wildcats made 65.4% of their free throws, 359th of 365, and their two likely lead scorers don't fix that: Scovens shot 63.9% and Janowski 64.1% last season.

Bradley's defense sent opponents to the line often last season, with an opponent free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) that ranked 273rd. If this stays close late, Davidson's misses at the line could keep Bradley in it.

Bradley also protected the ball well last season, turning it over on just 13.9% of possessions, 18th nationally. Most of the guards behind that number are gone, so treat it with caution.

What to watch

• Payton's volume: whether Bradley's best shooter gets enough clean looks against a sound perimeter defense.
• Tempo: a game played at Davidson's speed favors the more settled roster.
• Late free throws: Davidson's shooting at the line is the clearest path to a Bradley upset.
• Janowski's role: how much of Davidson's offense runs through its new guard.