Belmont vs Lipscomb prediction: Belmont rebuilds its shooting machine for a new Battle of the Boulevard

Two rosters, mostly new

Belmont went 26-6 last season and won with one of the most efficient offenses in the country. Almost none of that offense remains. The Bruins return 38.4% of last season's minutes, and the biggest losses ran through the whole lineup: Tyler Lundblade, the MVC Player of the Year whose signing Tennessee announced in April, plus Sam Orme (Nebraska), Drew Scharnowski (Duke) and Brigham Rogers (Murray State). Evan Bradds, hired in March, coaches his first season on the Belmont bench.

Lipscomb went 19-13 and is barely more intact, bringing back 42.6% of its minutes. Kevin Carroll begins his second season after returning from Trevecca Nazarene, and he lost his top scorer, center Grant Asman, along with Ross Candelino and Ethan Duncan.

Last season's final adjusted ratings (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) had Belmont 66th in net efficiency and Lipscomb 203rd of 365. With this much turnover on both sides, treat that gap as a rough outline rather than a measurement of these teams.

Belmont's shooting, minus its shooters

Last season Belmont led Division I in effective field goal percentage (a shooting measure where threes count 1.5 times) at 60.7%, and its 40.3% from three also ranked first. The question is how much of that skill walked out the door.

More than you might think stayed. Eoin Dillon hit 44.6% on 112 threes off the bench, and Jack Smiley made 43.6% on 101 attempts while running the second unit. Both now step into bigger roles, and Smiley is a natural fit at point guard. Jabez Jenkins, the only returner who started every game, is a slasher rather than a shooter at 28.1% from deep.

That shooting faces a soft target. Lipscomb allowed a 52.2% effective field goal percentage last season, 255th nationally, and it is replacing most of the players who guarded the perimeter.

Lipscomb's guards and a soft middle

Lipscomb's offense starts with Mateo Esmeraldo, who started every game last season and handed out 6.7 assists per game. He gets a scoring partner in Takai Simpkins, who averaged 12.5 points as a 31-game starter at Oregon. Titas Sargiunas adds volume from deep. The Bisons like to shoot: their 48.2% three-point attempt rate (share of shots taken from deep) ranked 26th last season.

The weakness sat inside. Opponents made 53.1% of their twos against Lipscomb, 272nd in the country, and the Bisons ranked 294th in block rate. Belmont would normally punish that, but the Bruins lost their two most efficient interior scorers in Scharnowski and Rogers. Florida Atlantic transfer Vincent Neugebauer and Ball State transfer Kayden Fish are the likeliest candidates to attack the rim, and neither played a large role last season.

Rivalry, tempo and the line

Lipscomb leads the all-time Battle of the Boulevard series 73–61, but Belmont has owned the recent meetings. The Bruins have won the last three, including one-point wins of 72-71 and 80-79, before a 75-68 win last November. Allen Arena gives Lipscomb the home floor this time, and the Bisons were picked third in the Atlantic Sun preseason poll.

Expect possessions. Lipscomb played at 70.8 possessions per 40 minutes last season (44th fastest), and Belmont was close behind at 70 (73rd). Two fast, three-happy teams usually produce a high-scoring game, though new rotations often mean sloppier early-season offense.

No spread or total had been posted as of Oct. 31. The tip is listed for 8 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Nov. 10.