Army vs New Haven prediction: Army's returning core tests a rebuilt New Haven roster in West Haven

Who's still in the gym

The most useful fact about this game is roster continuity, and it tilts hard one way. Army returns 56.2% of last season's minutes. New Haven returns 24.1%, and no transfers show up in its incoming data. The Chargers lost their top four players by minutes, led by guard Jabri Fitzpatrick, who scored 15.0 points a game and is now at Eastern Michigan.

That makes New Haven's numbers from last season a weak guide. The Chargers went 14-17 under a defense that ranked 67th nationally in efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions), but most of the players who built it are gone. Ted Hotaling coaches a roster led by Kheni Briggs, a guard who started 18 games, alongside names who barely played or are new. New Haven opens its season at Syracuse, and it remains ineligible for the NCAA tournament until the 2028–29 season.

Army's core is intact. Curry, Jacen Holloway, Kevin McCarthy and Tate Laczkowski all started most of last season's games. Holloway is listed as cleared for a fifth season, though that is unverified. The Black Knights were picked tenth in the Patriot League preseason coaches' poll after an 11-21 season, so continuity here means a familiar team, not necessarily a good one.

Army lets it fly

Army's identity is the three-pointer. Last season it took threes on 53.4% of its shots, third-most in the country, and moved the ball to get them: its assist rate ranked 38th. The problem was the finish. Army hit 32.4% from deep, 268th nationally.

Curry sets the tone. He made 76 threes last season at 33.5%, and McCarthy added 55 at 34.6%. Jaxson Bell, who made 52 threes at 35.9% last season, left for Furman. If Army's volume holds against a rebuilt defense still learning its rotations, the math favors the visitors on a night when a few more go down.

The glass and the foul line

Two other numbers shape this one. New Haven's offense ranked 351st in offensive rebound rate last season, the share of its own misses it recovered, and Army was solid on the defensive glass at 60th. With a young Chargers roster, second chances should be scarce.

Army, for its part, almost never gets to the line. Its free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) ranked 359th, and last season's New Haven defense ranked 33rd at keeping opponents off the line. Army's soft spot is inside: opponents shot 55.1% on twos against it, 327th, and its block rate ranked 360th. Holloway, who shot 51% from the field last season, and Laczkowski are the bigger bodies New Haven will try to attack.

A slow night in West Haven

Tempo matters for anyone eyeing the total once it posts. New Haven played at 64.1 possessions per 40 minutes last season, 339th in the country, while Army sat in the middle of the pack at 67. The Chargers scored 64.9 points a game, 354th, and allowed just 66.3.

A new roster may not keep the same deliberate style, and Army's quick-trigger threes can add possessions. Still, both teams finished last season in the bottom tier of adjusted net efficiency (scoring margin per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents): Army at 340th and New Haven at 326th. Neither offense has given much reason to expect a shootout.