Arkansas State vs Alabama prediction: Alabama without Aden Holloway faces Arkansas State in a fast, unfamiliar game

A backcourt starting over

Alabama's offense last season ran through two guards. One is gone, and the other is expected to be in street clothes.

Labaron Philon Jr. averaged 22.0 points last season and is no longer on the roster. Aden Holloway is back after scoring 16.8 a game and making 43.8% of his threes, but as of Oct. 8 he had begun a five-game suspension tied to two felony drug charges from March. The charges have since been dismissed, and Nate Oats said the suspension will not be reduced. It covers three exhibitions and the first two regular-season games, with his return slated for Nov. 9. Alabama opens Nov. 3 against Sam Houston State, so this would be the second game he misses.

Players on this season's roster account for only 48.7% of Alabama's minutes from last season. The guard depth is also thin. Freshman Anderson Diaz hurt his elbow and was given about a month to recover on Oct. 8, so he may or may not be ready by early November. Jaxon Richardson has been out sick, and Preston Murphy Jr. missed the Oct. 8 exhibition with an upper-body injury. Freshman Qayden Samuels has taken on extra point-guard duties. Freshman wing Cole Cloer scored 18 in the 92-84 exhibition win over Ole Miss, a game in which Alabama nearly lost an 18-point lead.

Both teams like to run

These programs both played fast last season. Alabama ranked 5th nationally in pace (possessions per 40 minutes) and Arkansas State ranked 15th. Alabama took threes on 54.4% of its shots, the highest rate in the country, and its offense ranked 5th in adjusted efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents).

The last two meetings in Tuscaloosa were both Alabama wins, 89-65 in December 2023 and 88-79 in November 2024. The system Oats runs in his 8th season is not changing. The open question is how well a reshuffled guard group can keep it running without its best shooter.

Second chances and loose balls

Arkansas State's clearest strength last season was the offensive glass. The Red Wolves grabbed 38.0% of their own misses (offensive rebound rate), 9th nationally. Alabama's defensive rebounding ranked 306th, so this matchup could give Arkansas State extra possessions.

Arkansas State also had a real weakness: its turnover rate (giveaways per 100 possessions) of 19.5% ranked 335th. Alabama is a poor team to exploit that, though. The Tide forced turnovers at a rate that ranked 362nd of 365 last season. Alabama protected the ball well itself, ranking 6th in turnover rate, so it should not hand back many of the possessions Arkansas State earns on the boards.

One caution: Arkansas State's team numbers describe a different roster. Ryan Pannone's squad has 12 newcomers, including guards Layne Taylor and Anthony Hester.

Pannone's return to Tuscaloosa

Pannone is in his second season at Arkansas State and coached at Alabama earlier in his career, so he knows this building and this offense. He also signed Diggy Coleman, a finalist for the top award in Alabama's largest high school classification, in April.

The gap between the programs was large last season. Alabama finished 12th in adjusted net efficiency and Arkansas State finished 157th, although the Red Wolves still went 20-12. Pannone said on Oct. 2 that injuries had kept his team from practicing in continuous five-to-six-minute stretches. Arkansas State has posted no specific injury news, and an undated listing shows no injuries. With this many new players, early-season sharpness matters.