Arkansas-Pine Bluff vs Baylor prediction: Brett Decker Jr. and a rebuilt Baylor open against Arkansas-Pine Bluff

A Baylor roster built from scratch

Baylor went 17-17 last season and missed the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2019-20. Scott Drew's answer was a near-total reset. Players on this season's roster accounted for just 25.1% of last season's minutes and 21.9% of its points, and the two leading scorers, Cameron Carr and Tounde Yessoufou, are gone.

That makes last season's team numbers a weak guide. The Bears' 123.3 adjusted offensive efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) ranked 24th nationally, but most of the players who produced it have left. The better guide is who arrived.

Brett Decker Jr. is the headliner. At Liberty last season he scored 16.9 points a game and made 47.1% of his threes on 242 attempts. Isaac Celiscar posted a 137.1 offensive rating at Yale, and Kayden Mingo started every game he played at Penn State. Big 12 coaches still slotted Baylor 10th of 16 in the preseason poll, which tells you how much of this is unproven.

Second chances on the glass

The clearest edge carries over from last season's identity. Baylor grabbed 37.2% of its own misses, 19th in Division I. Arkansas-Pine Bluff cleaned up only 67.3% of opponents' misses on defense, which ranked 302nd.

Caden Powell, one of the few returners, is the bridge to that style. He shot 67.2% from the field last season. Add Evan Chatman, who averaged 8.8 rebounds at UAB, and Baylor has the bodies to turn missed shots into extra possessions against a smaller rotation.

Fast pace, loose ball security

Arkansas-Pine Bluff wants to run. Its pace of 71.8 possessions per 40 minutes ranked 20th nationally last season, quicker than Baylor's 105th-ranked tempo. More possessions can mean more chances for an underdog to find a hot stretch.

The cost is turnovers. The Golden Lions coughed it up on 18.7% of possessions, 300th in the country. Mingo averaged 2.1 steals at Penn State, and every live-ball giveaway against him is a run-out layup the other way. Pace helps Pine Bluff only if it holds onto the ball.

Where Pine Bluff can hang around

The Golden Lions do have tools. They made 75.5% of their free throws last season, 63rd nationally, and their 56.8% assist rate ranked 82nd, a sign of an offense that shares the ball.

The defense is the problem. Last season's final adjusted defensive efficiency ranked 327th, and opponents earned free throws at a rate that ranked 338th. That is a bad combination against a roster stocked with efficient scorers like Decker, who shot 84.8% at the line.

Schedule matters too. Arkansas-Pine Bluff is at Arkansas on Nov. 3, three days before this game. The last two meetings were lopsided: Baylor won 99-42 in December 2020 and 99-54 in December 2021.

What to watch

• Availability: No Baylor injuries were listed as of Oct. 17. Juslin Bodo Bodo was described as cleared for all basketball activities in an item dated Oct. 6, though that item's year is unconfirmed. Nothing has surfaced on Pine Bluff's availability.
• Decker's volume: how quickly Baylor's offense runs through its leading transfer.
• Turnovers: whether the Golden Lions' fast pace produces easy points or giveaways.
• Tip time: 4 p.m. local at Foster Pavilion, streaming on ESPN+.