American University vs Clemson prediction: Clemson's transfer-built frontcourt tests American's thin interior defense

A roster built in the portal

Clemson's opener is less about American than about finding out who Clemson is. Players on this roster account for only 28.4% of last season's minutes, and the new pieces are transfers Cole Certa, Liutauras Lelevicius, David Fuchs and Dylan Faulkner.

The returning core has thinned since the ACC media picked the Tigers sixth. Carter Welling, the only returning starter, was still rehabbing a torn ACL from the ACC Tournament as of mid-October and has been expected to miss the start of the season. Sophomore guard Zac Foster re-tore the ACL in the same knee, which Clemson announced Oct. 13, and he is out indefinitely. That poll was finalized Oct. 12, before his injury was known.

Guard Dillon Hunter is still enrolled and practicing, but as of Oct. 7 he was ineligible because a Georgia appellate court stayed the ruling that had restored his eligibility. He could regain his final season if the NCAA loses its appeal. Brad Brownell said the team is waiting on the legal process. Clemson has said it is also managing several other injury recoveries without naming the players.

Faulkner and the open paint

The clearest mismatch is inside. Faulkner averaged 17.2 points at Samford last season and shot 61.7% from the field, nearly all of it inside the arc. American's defense last season gave him little reason to worry. Its block rate (blocks per opponent two-point attempt) was 4.5%, which ranked 362nd of 365, and opponents made 54.0% of their twos, 297th nationally.

The catch is the foul line. American sent opponents to the line often, with an opponent free throw rate (free throws attempted per field goal attempt) of 40.7%, 321st. Faulkner shot 56.3% on free throws at Samford, so some of the points the Eagles concede by fouling him may never arrive. Fuchs, who averaged 7.8 rebounds at San Francisco, gives Clemson a second big body to keep pressure on the rim.

American's path runs through threes

The Eagles' best counter is volume from deep. Last season 46.1% of their shots were threes, the 46th-highest rate in the country, though they made only 33.3% of them. Clemson's defense last season allowed plenty of attempts, with the 64th-highest opponent three-point rate, but held shooters to 32.4%. Most of the players from that defense are gone, so how well this group closes out on shooters is unknown.

American can also take the ball away. Its forced turnover rate last season was 19.6%, which ranked 50th. That pressure will land on a Clemson backcourt without Hunter or Foster. Certa and Lelevicius arrive as shooters more than primary ball handlers. Lelevicius hit 38% from three at TCU with an offensive rating of 129.1. Duane Simpkins' team has not shared much ahead of the season beyond a roster that includes freshmen DJ Sandi and Merrick Smith.

Tempo and the eventual number

Last season Clemson played at 64.7 possessions per 40 minutes, 315th in pace, while American sat near the middle at 67.2. If Brownell's teams keep that tempo, a slower game cuts the number of possessions American gets to hunt threes, and every empty trip matters more for the underdog.

No spread or total had been posted as of this writing. Clemson's schedule lists a 7 p.m. Eastern tip on ACC+. When a line appears, keep in mind that both teams' adjusted efficiency numbers come from last season's final ratings, and Clemson's roster has since been rebuilt.