Alcorn State vs Murray State prediction: Preseason favorite Murray State debuts a rebuilt roster against Alcorn State
The MVC's preseason pick returns only three players who saw the floor, and Alcorn State brings back none of last season's minutes, so this opener is a first look at two new teams.
- Murray State's scoring talent should control a home opener, but two heavily rebuilt rosters make the early minutes hard to predict.
- Alcorn State's ball pressure against Murray State's new backcourt: the Braves ranked 54th in steal rate last season.
- No spread or total is posted yet; last season's adjusted net ratings ranked Murray State 115th and Alcorn State 355th.
A favorite with new faces
Murray State enters the 2026-27 season as the team the Missouri Valley expects to beat. The Racers took 32 of the 50 first-place votes in the league's preseason poll, ahead of Illinois State and UIC, after a 20-13 season that ended with a third-place conference finish.
The roster behind that expectation is mostly new. Players on this season's roster accounted for just 27.6% of last season's minutes. Mathis Courbon, Roman Domon and Brayden Shorter are the only returners who saw action, and they are joined by nine newcomers: four transfers and five freshmen. Ryan Miller, who was in his first year as head coach last season, now has to build chemistry quickly. The CFSB Center opener on Tuesday, Nov. 10, is the first chance to see how the pieces fit.
Alcorn State starts from zero
Alcorn State has gone further than a rebuild. The Braves return 0.0% of last season's minutes after a 9-23 year, so last season's team numbers describe players who are mostly gone. Their leading scorer, Tycen McDaniels, left for UT Arlington, and Shane Lancaster, their best shooter, is now at North Carolina A&T.
The newcomers carry the identity now. Christian Richardson, a center from Omaha, shot 72.7% from the field last season in 15.7 minutes a game. Jayan Walker arrives from Indiana State. Jahseem Felton, a Seton Hall transfer, suffered a season-ending knee injury last season after playing three contests; there is no public word yet on whether he is cleared for this season. Alcorn State had no injuries listed as of Oct. 30.
Where possessions could swing
Alcorn State's one strength last season was disruption. Its steal rate (steals per opponent possession) ranked 54th nationally, even as the offense coughed it up on 20.5% of possessions, 351st in Division I. The defensive glass was a bigger problem: the Braves rebounded only 64.5% of opponents' misses, 356th.
None of those players are back, so treat the profile as a hint at how the program plays, not a forecast. Still, Murray State's guards are mostly new to each other, and an opener against a team that gambles for steals is a fair test of whether the ball security holds up.
Murray State's shot-making identity
Last season the Racers could score with anyone and stop almost no one. Their offensive efficiency (points per 100 possessions) was 123.3, 12th in the country, while their defense ranked 355th. One habit stood out: opponents took a smaller share of their shots from three against Murray State than against any other Division I team.
Domon is the bridge from that team to this one. He averaged 14.1 points with an offensive rating of 124.7 last season. Courbon shot 40.8% from three off the bench. The new frontcourt changes the look inside. Brigham Rogers shot 72.5% at Belmont, and Valparaiso transfer Shon Tupuola started every game and blocked 1.2 shots a night. They replace Fred King, the rim protector who left for Creighton.
Key players
- Roman Domon (Murray State): Averaged 14.1 points with a 124.7 offensive rating last season.
- Brigham Rogers (Murray State): Shot 72.5% from the field at Belmont last season.
- Christian Jones (Murray State): Started all 34 games for George Washington last season and averaged 10.0 points.
- Christian Richardson (Alcorn State): Shot 72.7% from the field at Omaha last season in 15.7 minutes a game.
- Ma'Kye Taylor (Alcorn State): Averaged 3.4 points in 31 games at UAlbany last season.
Numbers that matter
| Alcorn State returning minutes | 0.0% | Last season's Braves stats describe a roster that is entirely gone. |
|---|---|---|
| Murray State returning minutes | 27.6% | The preseason MVC favorite leans on three returners and nine newcomers. |
| Murray State offense, last season | 12th | The Racers' offensive efficiency ranked 12th nationally, while their defense ranked 355th. |
| Alcorn State steal rate, last season | 54th | Ball pressure was the Braves' one top-tier trait, though none of those players return. |
| Adjusted net rating rank, last season | 355th | Alcorn State's final opponent-adjusted rating was among the lowest in Division I. |
Alcorn State vs Murray State: quick answers
When is Alcorn State vs Murray State?
Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET.