Sacramento Kings vs Memphis Grizzlies prediction: Grizzlies' red-hot shooting faces a short-handed Kings defense

A defense with nowhere to hide

Five games in, the Grizzlies are unbeaten and the Kings are winless, and the gap between them is widest on the end of the floor where Sacramento has to stop somebody. The Kings rank 30th of 30 in opponent effective field goal percentage (a shooting measure that counts threes as 1.5 makes) at 59.3%. Opponents are hitting 62.0% inside the arc against them, also last in the league.

That was with a healthier roster. Sacramento will be without Maxime Raynaud (knee), the 7-foot-1 center who averaged 7.5 rebounds last season, along with Dylan Cardwell (calf) and Keegan Murray (ankle), who was ruled out for tonight. Ben Simmons is lost for the year after Achilles surgery. The Kings already block a smaller share of shots than any team in the league.

Memphis doesn't even need the rim. The Grizzlies shoot 40.1% from three, 1st in the NBA, and the Kings allow 37.0% from deep, 23rd. When Sacramento scrambles to protect the paint, Memphis shooters should get clean looks.

Memphis rebuilt and humming

This isn't last season's Grizzlies, who went 25-57. Ja Morant was traded over the summer, Jaren Jackson Jr. now plays in Utah, and only 52.6% of last season's minutes return. The new group owns a net efficiency of 11.7 points per 100 possessions, 2nd in the league, with a defense that holds opponents to 30.2% from three (4th).

Newcomer Jerami Grant averaged 18.6 points for Portland last season, and Cam Spencer hit 44.9% of his threes for Memphis. Rookie Cameron Boozer posted his first career triple-double Thursday in the 124-103 win at Portland, with 18 points, 12 rebounds and 12 assists.

Depth is the question. Ty Jerome and Scotty Pippen Jr. were both listed questionable with back soreness as of Oct. 30, and Spencer could start if neither plays. Quinten Post (ankle) is listed doubtful on most reports and day-to-day on another, so his status is unsettled. If he sits, Isaiah Stewart, who blocked 1.6 shots a game for Detroit last season, takes more backup center minutes.

Where the Kings can score

Sacramento's offense ranks 25th in efficiency (points per 100 possessions) at 104.4, and its 30.7% three-point shooting sits 26th. The Kings do produce near the basket, averaging 53.2 paint points (6th), but Memphis gives up just 44.4 there (8th).

That puts pressure on the guards. Zach LaVine averaged 19.2 points last season, and Malik Monk shot 39.5% from three off the bench. Rookie Darius Acuff Jr., the seventh overall pick, has been given the ball freely, attempting 73 shots across his first games, but the Kings lost DeMar DeRozan and Russell Westbrook from last season's backcourt.

Second chances and fast starts

Memphis grabs 32.3% of its own misses, 3rd in the league, and without Raynaud and Cardwell the Kings' frontcourt is thin. Extra possessions compound a shooting edge quickly.

The early minutes matter too. Sacramento allows 66.0 first-half points (29th), while Memphis scores 61.4 before the break (4th). The Kings trailed San Antonio 80-54 at halftime Tuesday and were down 67-59 at the half against Memphis last Sunday.

What the market is saying

The Grizzlies were first seen in our feed at -10.5 with a 233.5 total, and the line has since moved to Memphis -8.5 with the total at 230.5, so the spread has shortened toward Sacramento; Memphis is -370 on the moneyline. Last Sunday, Memphis won 123-112 in Sacramento as a 3.5-point favorite, and that game went over a 234.5 total.

The trends pull the total in opposite directions. Memphis is 5-0 against the spread with four unders in five games, while Sacramento is 1-4 ATS with four overs. The Kings play fast, 8th in pace, while Memphis sits 19th, so whoever sets the tempo will shape the total.