Minnesota Timberwolves vs San Antonio Spurs prediction: Without Edwards and on no rest, Wolves face Wembanyama's rested Spurs

Minnesota's backcourt, gutted

The Timberwolves arrive in San Antonio without the player who defines them. Anthony Edwards had arthroscopic surgery on his right knee Thursday and is out. The team expects a full recovery, and the injury report carries an estimated return of Dec. 21. Edwards averaged 28.8 points last season, and nobody on this roster replaces that.

The guard room was already thin. Donte DiVincenzo is out after Achilles surgery, with an estimated return of April 2. That leaves LaMelo Ball as the main creator. He averaged 20.1 points and 7.1 assists for Charlotte last season, and his first months in Minnesota just got a lot heavier.

This is a reshaped team even before the injuries. Only 64.5% of last season's Wolves minutes belong to players still on the roster, with Julius Randle and Naz Reid gone.

The schedule piles on. Minnesota beat the Clippers 127-101 on Friday night, the night after Edwards' surgery, and now plays the second half of a back-to-back on the road. The Spurs have had three days off since an overtime win at Utah.

The defense that travels

Minnesota's reason for hope is its defense. The Wolves have allowed 100.8 points per 100 possessions, the best mark in the league through six games, and opponents are shooting 30.5% from three against them, 5th-best. Gobert anchors that, and he is healthy.

The offense has been sharp, too. Minnesota is hitting 39.2% from deep, 2nd in the league. San Antonio's perimeter defense is an odd fit for that. The Spurs allow the fewest three-point attempts in the league (35.9% of opponent shots, 30th), but the threes that do get up are falling at 39.4%, 28th of 30. The Spurs' defense runs shooters off the line. Minnesota will get fewer looks, and it has to make them.

Where San Antonio wins it

The Spurs' edges sit in the places Minnesota is weakest tonight. San Antonio leads the league with 21.4 fast-break points per game and ranks 3rd in paint scoring at 54.8. Tired legs on the second night of a back-to-back are what a running team feasts on.

The Spurs also protect the ball better than anyone, with the league's lowest turnover rate (turnovers per 100 possessions) at 12.6. Minnesota ranks only 17th at forcing turnovers, so empty Spurs trips should be rare. The Wolves' counter is the glass: they grab 77.5% of available defensive rebounds, 3rd in the league, which can blunt second chances.

The free-throw line won't rescue Minnesota. San Antonio allows the fewest free throws relative to shots in the league, and the Wolves are hitting 62.8% at the line, dead last. Wembanyama has been the engine for the Spurs, scoring 36 in that overtime win at Utah.

A rematch with a gap

This is the first meeting since San Antonio eliminated Minnesota in six games in last season's Western Conference semifinals. Wembanyama averaged 19.8 points and 12 rebounds in that series, mostly against Gobert. The regular season was closer: the Wolves won two of three, including a 104-103 game in Minneapolis.

The Spurs haven't been at their best at home, going 1-2 at Frost Bank Center with losses to Oklahoma City and Houston. Tobias Harris (left calf) is out again, so San Antonio will lean on its four-guard looks around Wembanyama, with Dylan Harper and Devin Vassell starting.

What the market says

San Antonio is a 12.5-point favorite (-600 on the moneyline, Minnesota +440), and neither the spread nor the 226.5 total has budged since our feed first logged the game Saturday morning. Books had priced in Edwards before then.

Two trends pull in opposite directions. Minnesota has covered five of six spreads, often as a short underdog. The Spurs have gone under in four of five games, and their defense ranks 7th in efficiency, which leans toward a game played below the number if Minnesota's offense stalls without Edwards.