Utah Mammoth vs Pittsburgh Penguins prediction: Utah's lethal power play tests Pittsburgh's discipline in Oct. 19 rematch
The Mammoth convert at an elite rate with the man advantage, but they take a lot of penalties, and their goaltending hasn't held up.
| Line | Utah Mammoth -135 (puck line -1.5) |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 6.5 |
- Utah should carry the play at five-on-five; the game likely turns on penalties and whether Vejmelka stops enough shots.
- Utah's power play against Pittsburgh's discipline: the Mammoth score at 34.8%, while the Penguins are shorthanded just 2.58 times per game.
- Utah is a -130 road favorite with the total steady at 6.5, but the Mammoth are 5-8 on the puck line.
Utah's power play sets the stakes
No unit in this game is more dangerous than Utah's power play. The Mammoth convert 34.8% of their man-advantage chances, meaning power-play goals per opportunity, and that ranks 2nd of 32.
Pittsburgh's best defense is staying out of the penalty box. The Penguins are shorthanded only 2.58 times per game, 3rd fewest in the league. When they do take a penalty, their kill holds up: it stops 83.9% of opponent power plays.
Utah has the opposite habit. The Mammoth are shorthanded 3.54 times per game, 28th in the league, and their penalty kill sits at 67.4%, 29th. Tuesday's loss to Minnesota included three fights, a reminder that Utah's physical style comes with a cost.
Shots aren't Utah's problem
Utah drives play. Its shot share, the portion of all shots in its games that it takes, is 55.7%, 3rd in the NHL. The problem is what gets past its goalies. The Mammoth's team save percentage is 86.2%, 31st of 32, so a territorial edge hasn't produced stingy games.
Karel Vejmelka is the probable starter after playing Tuesday. He carries an .881 save percentage. Arturs Silovs is expected to start for Pittsburgh, with Sergei Murashov as the backup, and his .890 mark is better but still nothing special. It's early, and a few hot or cold nights can swing goalie numbers a lot. Still, neither crease looks ready to steal a game.
Pittsburgh's lineup in flux
Bryan Rust is out. He went on injured reserve with a lower-body injury after the first meeting with Utah and will be reevaluated in six weeks. The better news is up front. Ben Kindel practiced with full contact Tuesday after a vasovagal episode on the team plane and could play Thursday. Crosby called his return a good sign.
Kindel skated on the second line between Evgeni Malkin and Egor Chinakhov. Both are listed day-to-day, Malkin with an illness and Chinakhov with a lower-body injury, and both were on the ice at Wednesday's practice. Malkin missed the Oct. 24 win but has 6 goals, so his status matters. Samuel Girard has been on injured reserve since Oct. 24 and was at Wednesday's practice. Justin Brazeau is listed out.
Utah is missing defenseman John Marino, who was still listed week-to-week as of Oct. 26, and forward Michael Carcone, who is on injured reserve.
Rematch, rest and the market
Utah won the first meeting 5-4 on Oct. 19. Now Pittsburgh gets the rematch at home, where it is 4-1-0, and it has had 5 days of rest. Utah played Tuesday, and this game opens a stretch of six straight road games.
The market still favors the visitors. Utah is -130 on the moneyline and Pittsburgh is +110, and the total of 6.5 hasn't moved since our feed first recorded the game. The Mammoth have struggled to win by margin. They are 5-8 on the puck line and failed to cover in each of their last five games, all as favorites.
Utah Mammoth vs Pittsburgh Penguins line movement and odds
| Book | Mammoth ML | Penguins ML | Mammoth spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -135 | +105 | -1.5 (+165) | o6.5 (-155) |
| DraftKings | -130 | +110 | -1.5 (+170) | o6.5 (-135) |
| ESPN BET | -130 | +110 | -1.5 (+180) | o6.5 (-135) |
| Fanatics | -130 | +110 | -1.5 (+175) | o6.5 (-140) |
| FanDuel | -130 | +108 | -1.5 (+176) | o6.5 (-140) |
| Hard Rock Bet | -150 | +115 | -1.5 (+175) | o6.5 (-130) |
| Caesars | -130 | +110 | — | o6.5 (-150) |
Key players
- Karel Vejmelka (Utah Mammoth): His .881 save percentage this season has to improve for Utah's shot edge to pay off.
- Mikhail Sergachev (Utah Mammoth): He leads Utah's blue line with 15 points this season and has played through an early upper-body scare.
- Nick Schmaltz (Utah Mammoth): He leads the Mammoth with 7 goals this season on a 20.0% shooting rate.
- Clayton Keller (Utah Mammoth): He has 11 assists among his 15 points this season.
- Arturs Silovs (Pittsburgh Penguins): He has started 8 games this season with an .890 save percentage.
- Erik Karlsson (Pittsburgh Penguins): He leads Pittsburgh with 12 points this season, 11 of them assists.
- Evgeni Malkin (Pittsburgh Penguins): He is shooting 27.3% this season, but his illness leaves his availability unsettled.
- Sidney Crosby (Pittsburgh Penguins): He has 7 points this season with a -6 rating.
Numbers that matter
| Utah power play | 34.8% | It ranks 2nd of 32 and is the biggest single threat in this game. |
|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh times shorthanded | 2.58 | Taking the 3rd-fewest penalties per game limits Utah's best weapon. |
| Utah penalty kill | 67.4% | At 29th in the league, it gives Pittsburgh a way to keep up. |
| Utah team save % | 86.2% | It ranks 31st, which undercuts a shot share that ranks 3rd. |
| Utah puck line record | 5-8 | The Mammoth have rarely won by two or more goals, even as favorites. |
Utah Mammoth vs Pittsburgh Penguins: quick answers
What is the over/under for Utah Mammoth vs Pittsburgh Penguins?
The total is 6.5 goals.
When is Utah Mammoth vs Pittsburgh Penguins?
Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 7:10 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Utah Mammoth vs Pittsburgh Penguins?
No: Utah Mammoth has stayed at -1.5, and the total is still 6.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).