Ottawa Senators vs Los Angeles Kings prediction: Senators' Ullmark-less crease faces the NHL's worst penalty kill in Los Angeles

The crease without Ullmark

Ottawa's season was built in net. Linus Ullmark posted a .945 save percentage over eight games before a lower-body strain put him on injured reserve, and he was expected to miss one to two weeks as of Oct. 22. What's left is far less certain.

Samuel Ersson is listed as the probable starter, but his numbers explain the hesitation: an .835 save percentage and a 4.59 goals-against average across five appearances. Jonas Johansson started both of Ottawa's last two games, and the Senators are expected to split the work between the two for the rest of this road trip. Neither has been confirmed for tonight, and that choice matters more than anything else in this game.

Los Angeles has its own questions. Darcy Kuemper is the probable starter, with an .889 save percentage and a 3.47 GAA. Anton Forsberg was expected to start Tuesday in Chicago and has been the better of the pair at .902, though neither has stolen many games.

A penalty kill under siege

This is where Ottawa should find its edge. The Senators draw 4.23 power plays per game, 2nd in the league. The Kings' penalty kill, the share of opponent power plays they survive without allowing a goal, sits at 63.6%, dead last among 32 teams.

The catch is that Ottawa has done little with its chances. Its power play, measured as power-play goals per opportunity, converts at 12.7%, 28th in the league. Shane Pinto's power-play goal was Ottawa's only score in Tuesday's 4-1 loss at Vegas. The volume favors the Senators in this matchup.

The Kings do stay out of the box. They are shorthanded 3.0 times per game, 9th in the league, which could blunt Ottawa's biggest advantage.

Stutzle against Panarin

Tim Stutzle is carrying Ottawa with 16 points in 13 games, but he is scoring on 32.0% of his shots, a rate few players sustain. Drake Batherson adds seven goals on the other wing, so the top of the lineup is producing even if the depth is not.

For Los Angeles, Artemi Panarin leads the team with seven goals. Adrian Kempe has generated plenty, with 36 shots, but just three have gone in. As a team, the Kings shoot 9.4%, 28th in the league, which helps explain why they rank 27th in scoring. They do start fast, though: the Kings score 1.09 first-period goals per game, 6th in the NHL.

Thin benches on both sides

The Kings are missing a lot. Kevin Fiala, Mats Zuccarello, Jakub Dvorak, Alex Turcotte and Jan Jenik were all listed out on Thursday. Drew Doughty and Corey Perry are day-to-day with undisclosed injuries. Quinton Byfield was listed day-to-day on Oct. 25 and was preparing to play the next day.

Ottawa is without William Eklund, who is out 10 to 12 weeks after ankle surgery. Warren Foegele left the Vegas game in the third period and is day-to-day with a knee injury. Thomas Chabot's status is unsettled: he was a full participant in Monday's practice and was described as nearing a return, but he was still listed as out on the Oct. 27 league report.

The schedule also matters. Ottawa's trip continues with a back-to-back in San Jose on Saturday and Anaheim on Sunday, which could shape how the Senators divide their goaltending.

What the market is saying

Ottawa is a -115 favorite on the moneyline, with the Kings at -105, so the price is close but the direction is clear. When our feed first saw this game, Los Angeles was the -1.5 puck-line side. That line has since moved to Ottawa, a vote of confidence despite the Senators' goalie uncertainty.

The Kings have struggled at home, going 0-3-0 at Crypto.com Arena. They did win both meetings last season, 1-0 and 2-1.

The total sits at 5.5. Ottawa has gone under in eight of 13 games and Los Angeles in seven of 11, though Ersson in net would make that harder to rely on.