Vancouver Canucks vs San Jose Sharks prediction: Sharks' power play gets a crack at Vancouver's broken penalty kill

Vancouver can't keep the puck

The Canucks ended a 10-game losing streak Tuesday in Anaheim. They rallied late in the third period and won 6-5 when Filip Hronek scored on a 5-on-3 with 11 seconds left in overtime. The comeback was dramatic, but it doesn't change much about who they are. Vancouver allows 32.8 shots per game, last in the NHL, and holds just a 38.8% shot share, meaning its share of all shots in its games. That is also last.

San Jose isn't much better at protecting its own net. The Sharks allow 31.1 shots per game, 31st in the league, and Buffalo outshot them 41-23 on Tuesday in a 2-0 loss. "We're not generating, but we also just give up 40 shots and a lot of chances again," coach Ryan Warsofsky said afterward. He shuffled his forward lines and defensive pairs before that game, and it isn't known whether he'll keep them.

Two goalies near .900

Leevi Merilainen is the probable starter for Vancouver with a .900 save percentage and a 3.35 goals-against average. With Thatcher Demko on injured reserve after hip surgery, and the club hoping he returns before Christmas, Merilainen is carrying the load. The alternative is Kevin Lankinen, who has stopped 81.2% of shots this season.

Yaroslav Askarov is expected to start for San Jose. He has a .898 save percentage and a 3.13 goals-against average, and he made 38 saves in Tuesday's loss to Buffalo. Neither starter is confirmed until warmups.

The special teams gap

This is the clearest mismatch in the game. San Jose's power play converts 25.0% of its chances, measured as power-play goals per opportunity, which ranks 8th. Vancouver's penalty kill stops just 63.8% of opponents' power plays, 31st of 32. The Sharks draw 3.38 power plays per game, 10th in the league, so they should get chances.

Vancouver finishes, San Jose leans on Celebrini

The Canucks get few shots but make them count. Their 14.8% shooting percentage ranks 3rd, which is why they score at a league-average rate despite taking the fewest shots. Jonathan Lekkerimaki has six goals on 23 shots, and Elias Pettersson leads the team with 15 points.

Macklin Celebrini, back since early October after a lower-body injury, also has 15 points, in 11 games, along with 44 shots. The Sharks list Alexander Wennberg and Igor Chernyshov on injured reserve with upper-body injuries. Jacob Trouba wore the "A" on Tuesday with Wennberg out.

What the market says

San Jose is -190 on the moneyline and Vancouver is +160. The puck line has the Sharks at -1.5, and the total is 6.5, unchanged since our feed first recorded the game. Vancouver's over/under record is 7-7, so totals haven't leaned either way for the Canucks.

The first period could set the tone. Vancouver allows 1.5 first-period goals per game, worst in the league, while San Jose scores just 0.62 in opening periods, 29th. Last season, the Canucks took the final meeting in San Jose, 4-3 on April 11.