New York Islanders vs Minnesota Wild prediction: Kaprizov's scorching start tests Sorokin and a stingy Islanders defense

Kaprizov against the wall

Kirill Kaprizov has turned the first month into a personal highlight reel. He has 14 goals in 14 games, and he is converting 29.2% of his shots. That pace probably won't hold over a full season, but it is the reason Minnesota arrives home on a three-game win streak.

The Wild also bury opponents in volume. They average 31.2 shots on goal per game, 3rd in the league, and own 55.5% of all shots in their games (shot share), 4th of 32. Quinn Hughes feeds the machine from the back end with 15 assists, and Matt Boldy has fired a team-high 61 shots.

The Islanders are built to blunt exactly that. They allow 2.58 goals per game, 5th in the league, and they win faceoffs at a 55.1% clip, 2nd of 32. Starting with the puck is how a team that generates only 26.2 shots per game keeps a heavy-volume opponent from settling in.

Two goalies in form

With Filip Gustavsson out after hip surgery, Jesper Wallstedt has carried Minnesota's crease and is expected to start. He has a .922 save percentage and a 1.99 goals-against average across 12 games, the main reason the Wild allow just 2.21 goals per game, 3rd in the league.

Ilya Sorokin is listed as the Islanders' probable starter, though the team has not confirmed it. Semyon Varlamov started Tuesday's shootout win at Nashville, a night the Islanders let a three-goal lead slip away. Sorokin has been the steadier option, posting a .919 save percentage and a 2.26 goals-against average in eight starts. Neither team is on a back-to-back.

Power play edge to Minnesota

Special teams tilt toward the home side. Minnesota's power play converts 26.5% of its chances (power-play goals per opportunity), 6th in the league, and the Wild draw 3.5 power plays per game, also 6th.

That is a problem for an Islanders team that goes shorthanded often, 21st in times shorthanded per game. Their penalty kill is good at 85.4%, 6th of 32, so the matchup is strength against strength. At the other end, the Islanders' power play sits 25th at 15.8%, which makes it hard for them to steal goals back when Minnesota takes a penalty.

Both lineups are thinned

The Islanders remain without Mathew Barzal (knee). He did not travel on the road trip and has no firm timeline. Matias Maccelli and Calum Ritchie went on injured reserve with lower-body injuries, and Alexander Romanov is out long-term after knee surgery. Mitchell Chaffee was recalled to fill a forward spot. Matthew Schaefer has picked up the slack with points in five straight games, and Bo Horvat leads the team with 13 points.

Minnesota is missing defenseman Brock Faber (skull) and both Marcus and Nick Foligno. Jared Spurgeon is day-to-day after he left Tuesday's game against Utah having blocked two shots on one shift, with no update since. His status is unsettled heading into Thursday.

What the market says

Minnesota is a -190 moneyline favorite, with the Islanders at +160. The Wild are -1.5 on the puck line, and the total sits at 5.5. Neither line has moved since our feed first recorded the game.

The total fits both teams' habits. The under has hit in 10 of Minnesota's 14 games and 7 of the Islanders' 12. The Wild have covered the puck line in 9 of 14, and they are 4-0-0 at home. The Islanders, 2-3-1 on the road, need Sorokin to keep it close and their faceoff edge to limit Minnesota's time with the puck.