Cincinnati Bearcats vs Iowa State Cyclones prediction: Cole Tabb and Cincinnati's ground game test a sagging Iowa State front
A bowl-hungry Cincinnati brings one of the country's best rushing attacks to Ames, where Iowa State's run defense and Jaylen Raynor's hot arm decide a tight line.
| Spread | Iowa State -3 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 59.5 |
- Expect points: two poor defenses, a 59.5 total, and a game likely decided by which team finishes drives late.
- Cincinnati's run game, sixth in line yards, against an Iowa State run defense ranked 94th in rushing EPA allowed.
- Our model makes Iowa State a 3.25-point favorite with a 59.69 total, almost exactly where the market sits.
Where Cincinnati wins it
Cincinnati needs one more win to become bowl eligible, and Iowa State needs this one to keep a bowl path that doesn't require winning out. The Bearcats are 0-3 on the road this season. Their clearest route to fixing that runs straight through the middle of the Iowa State defense.
Cincinnati runs for 221.9 yards per game, 10th in FBS. The engine is the offensive line: the Bearcats average 3.48 line yards per carry (the rushing yardage credited to the blockers rather than the back), sixth in the country. Iowa State ranks 94th in rushing EPA allowed (expected points added per play) and 77th in line yards allowed. That is the mismatch most likely to swing Saturday.
Cole Tabb is the reason it gets dangerous. He has 812 yards at 8.9 yards per carry, with 10 rushing touchdowns. He cooled at Houston, with 60 yards on 12 carries, and Satterfield said this week that Tabb is "doing much better" and took part in a walk-through. No official status has been released. If he is limited, Gi'Bran Payne (6.2 yards per carry) carries a steadier but less explosive load, and JC French adds 313 rushing yards of his own.
Raynor's window through the air
Iowa State's answer is a Cincinnati pass defense that has given up 276.0 passing yards per game, 134th in FBS. The Bearcats rank 123rd in passing EPA allowed, and over their last three games opponents posted a 55.1% success rate (the share of plays that keep an offense on schedule) against them.
Jaylen Raynor is arriving in form. Over his last three games he averages 8.9 yards per attempt, with five touchdowns and one interception. Jamal Polite Jr. is the big-play threat, with 171 receiving yards against Oklahoma State. Coach Jimmy Rogers praised Raynor's recent play this week.
The Cyclones' weakness is staying on schedule. Their 39.6% success rate ranks 107th, and they convert just 35.0% on third down. They survive on explosiveness (13th) and finishing, scoring 4.52 points per scoring opportunity. Cincinnati allows 44.4% on third down, 122nd, so those third-and-medium snaps are where Raynor can turn a choppy offense into a productive one. Iowa State's line is the risk: it ranks 117th in havoc allowed (the share of plays with a tackle for loss, sack, fumble, interception or pass breakup).
Hidden yards lean Bearcats
Cincinnati's defense quietly wins the field-position battle. Opponents start their drives at the 25.0-yard line on average, third-best in FBS, helped by a net punting average of 44.8 yards that ranks 11th. Iowa State's offense starts at its own 27.1, 110th.
The Bearcats give some of that back on the kicking side. They have made 7/10 field goals, and in a game this close a missed kick matters. Iowa State's kick return unit ranks 11th at 26.8 yards per return, a real counter if Cincinnati scores often.
Health, form and the number
Cincinnati's receiver room is thin heading in. JaVonnie Gibson, the leading receiver with 515 yards, is day-to-day, and Satterfield said he is "still not out of the woods yet." Malachi Henry is questionable. Iowa State has its own injury questions, and defensive end Caden Crawford's status for this game hasn't been confirmed.
Recent defense has been ugly on both sides. Iowa State allowed 43.3 points per game over its last three, Cincinnati 34.7. The Cyclones did show a pass rush at Baylor, where Blake Hawkins sacked the quarterback on third-and-16. Cincinnati won last year's meeting 38-30.
The market opened at Iowa State -1.5 and has moved to -3. Our fair line of -3.25 sits almost exactly on the current number.
Where the money is on Cincinnati Bearcats vs Iowa State Cyclones
On the Kalshi moneyline: Cincinnati Bearcats: 72% of bets, 69% of the money; Iowa State Cyclones: 29% of bets, 31% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Iowa State Cyclones -2.5: 76% of bets, 61% of the money; Cincinnati Bearcats +2.5: 24% of bets, 39% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 59.5: 43% of bets, 92% of the money; Under 59.5: 57% of bets, 8% of the money.
Cincinnati Bearcats vs Iowa State Cyclones stats (this season)
| Stat | Cincinnati Bearcats | Iowa State Cyclones |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 5-4 | 4-5 |
| Points per game | 33.0 (35th of 138) | 29.2 (61st of 138) |
| Points allowed per game | 29.4 (109th of 138) | 28.9 (104th of 138) |
| Yards per play | 6.73 (14th of 138) | 5.92 (52nd of 138) |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.35 (123rd of 138) | 6.20 (121st of 138) |
| Passing yards per game | 225.0 (77th of 138) | 200.3 (100th of 138) |
| Rushing yards per game | 221.9 (10th of 138) | 181.0 (41st of 138) |
| 3rd-down conversion | 47.0% (21st of 138) | 35.0% (109th of 138) |
| Turnovers per game | 0.78 (18th of 138) | 0.89 (26th of 138) |
| Takeaways per game | 1.33 (45th of 138) | 1.11 (72nd of 138) |
| EPA per play | 0.241 (18th of 138) | 0.136 (67th of 138) |
| EPA per play allowed | 0.167 (115th of 138) | 0.164 (111th of 138) |
Key players
- Cole Tabb (Cincinnati): Averages 8.9 yards per carry with 10 rushing touchdowns, and his health is the swing factor for the Bearcats.
- JC French (Cincinnati): Has 15 passing touchdowns this season but has thrown three interceptions in his last three games.
- JaVonnie Gibson (Cincinnati): Leads the team with 515 receiving yards and is day-to-day.
- Patrick Bauer (Cincinnati): Has 3.5 sacks and 7.5 tackles for loss, the Bearcats' top threat against a shaky Iowa State line.
- Jaylen Raynor (Iowa State): Averaging 8.9 yards per attempt over his last three games against a Cincinnati pass defense ranked 134th in yards allowed.
- Aiden Flora (Iowa State): Has 1,119 rushing yards at 7.1 per carry, including 221 against Oklahoma State.
- Jamal Polite Jr. (Iowa State): Posted 171 receiving yards against Oklahoma State and is the Cyclones' deep threat.
- Sullivan Schlimgen (Iowa State): Leads the defense with 84 tackles and will be central to slowing Cincinnati's run game.
Numbers that matter
| Cincinnati line yards | 6th | The Bearcats' blockers rank near the top of FBS, facing an Iowa State front ranked 77th in line yards allowed. |
|---|---|---|
| Iowa State rushing EPA allowed | 94th | The Cyclones have struggled to stop the run, which plays into Cincinnati's biggest strength. |
| Cincinnati passing yards allowed | 276.0 | Ranked 134th, it gives a hot Raynor a clear target. |
| Cincinnati opponents' starting field position | 25.0 | Third in FBS, a hidden edge that pins Iowa State's offense deep. |
| Line move | -1.5 | Iowa State opened at this number and has moved to -3. |
Cincinnati Bearcats vs Iowa State Cyclones: quick answers
Who is favored in Cincinnati Bearcats vs Iowa State Cyclones?
Iowa State is favored by 3 points (Iowa State -3).
What is the over/under for Cincinnati Bearcats vs Iowa State Cyclones?
The total is 59.5 points.
When is Cincinnati Bearcats vs Iowa State Cyclones?
Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
Where is Cincinnati Bearcats vs Iowa State Cyclones played?
Jack Trice Stadium.
Where is the money on Cincinnati Bearcats vs Iowa State Cyclones?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Cincinnati Bearcats: 72% of bets, 69% of the money; Iowa State Cyclones: 29% of bets, 31% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Iowa State Cyclones -2.5: 76% of bets, 61% of the money; Cincinnati Bearcats +2.5: 24% of bets, 39% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 59.5: 43% of bets, 92% of the money; Under 59.5: 57% of bets, 8% of the money.