Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Oklahoma State Cowboys prediction: Can Texas Tech's pass rush reach Drew Mestemaker before he burns them?
No. 10 Texas Tech brings one of the country's best pass rushes to Stillwater, where Oklahoma State almost never lets its quarterback get hit.
| Spread | Oklahoma State -3.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 73 |
- Expect points. The market total is 73, and Oklahoma State's passing game should find room against a secondary ranked 136th in passing yards allowed.
- Texas Tech's 3.11 sacks per game (9th) against Oklahoma State's protection, which allows 0.89 per game (8th).
- Our model makes Oklahoma State a 3.5-point favorite with a 73-point total, matching the market, and gives the Cowboys a 59% win chance.
Pressure against the pocket
Oklahoma State has averaged 57.3 points over its last three games, and its quarterback has barely been touched all season. Texas Tech arrives at No. 10 with the Big 12 race in its own hands and one of the nation's most dangerous pass rushes. Saturday's late kickoff in Stillwater turns on whether that rush can get home.
Drew Mestemaker has thrown for 2,962 yards and 29 touchdowns. He averages 9.6 yards per attempt, and that figure has held steady over his last three games. His line allows 0.89 sacks per game, 8th of 138. Texas Tech counters with 3.11 sacks per game, 9th nationally, and Anthony Holmes Jr. owns 6.5 of them.
If the rush stalls, the secondary is exposed. Tech allows 286.9 passing yards per game, 136th of 138. Its efficiency is better: the Red Raiders rank 39th in passing EPA allowed (expected points added per play). The problem is the big gain. Tech ranks 121st in explosiveness allowed, a measure of how much damage opponents do on their successful plays. Justin Bowick has 10 touchdown catches, and Wyatt Young gives Mestemaker a second target who can turn a completion into a chunk play.
Castellanos and the ground game
Thomas Castellanos is Texas Tech's starter, and he comes in off the best passing night of his career against West Virginia. He threw for 362 yards and five touchdowns. He also runs the offense with his legs, carrying 23 times for 102 yards in that game.
Tailback J'Koby Williams is the bigger worry for Oklahoma State. He averages 8.0 yards per carry, and he has 416 rushing yards over his last three games. The Cowboys give up 151.3 rushing yards per game, 81st nationally, so Tech can lean on the run and keep Mestemaker on the sideline.
The catch is Tech's own defense. The Red Raiders allowed 37.0 points per game over their last three, and Oklahoma State's Caleb Hawkins has run for 489 yards in his last three games.
Giveaways and hidden yards
Oklahoma State's weak spot is ball security. The Cowboys turn it over 1.67 times per game, 118th nationally. Texas Tech takes it away 1.56 times per game, 26th. That's a real path for an underdog.
The Cowboys have a ballhawk of their own. Safety LaDainian Fields has seven interceptions, and five came in the last three games.
Special teams lean toward Tech. Oklahoma State averages 10.6 yards per kick return, last in FBS. Tech's punt coverage is a liability, though, allowing 24.8 yards per return, 133rd.
Morris against his roots
Eric Morris played four seasons at Texas Tech under Mike Leach, squeezing onto the roster as a wide receiver. Tech offensive coordinator Mack Leftwich was Morris's graduate assistant at Incarnate Word and runs the same offense. Both sidelines will know what's coming.
The stakes are lopsided. Texas Tech controls its path, and three wins to close the regular season would send it back to Arlington. Oklahoma State's title hopes are thin, but a win would give the Cowboys a valuable tiebreaker. Morris is 0-1 against Tech as a head coach, and last year's meeting ended 42-0 in Lubbock.
Where the number lands
The market has moved firmly toward the home side. Oklahoma State opened as a 1-point underdog and is now favored by 3.5. Our model lands in the same place on both the spread and the 73-point total.
The total fits the series. These teams have combined for at least 70 points in 10 of their last 13 meetings. One tested pattern applies here: when the favorite covers, the underdog's passing tends to go under, not pile up in catch-up mode. An Oklahoma State cover would more likely come with Castellanos held in check through the air. Our first-half number makes the Cowboys a 1-point favorite.
Where the money is on Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Oklahoma State Cowboys
On the Kalshi moneyline: Texas Tech Red Raiders: 73% of bets, 66% of the money; Oklahoma State Cowboys: 27% of bets, 34% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Oklahoma State Cowboys -3.5: 63% of bets, 72% of the money; Texas Tech Red Raiders +3.5: 37% of bets, 28% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 72.5: 91% of bets, 88% of the money; Under 72.5: 9% of bets, 12% of the money.
Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Oklahoma State Cowboys stats (this season)
| Stat | Texas Tech Red Raiders | Oklahoma State Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 8-1 | 6-3 |
| Points per game | 37.6 (14th of 138) | 43.9 (3rd of 138) |
| Points allowed per game | 24.1 (67th of 138) | 27.2 (93rd of 138) |
| Yards per play | 6.43 (28th of 138) | 7.47 (3rd of 138) |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.62 (83rd of 138) | 5.64 (86th of 138) |
| Passing yards per game | 234.7 (61st of 138) | 339.1 (3rd of 138) |
| Rushing yards per game | 214.8 (13th of 138) | 194.4 (28th of 138) |
| 3rd-down conversion | 40.2% (71st of 138) | 40.6% (62nd of 138) |
| Turnovers per game | 1.44 (93rd of 138) | 1.67 (118th of 138) |
| Takeaways per game | 1.56 (26th of 138) | 1.56 (26th of 138) |
| EPA per play | 0.197 (37th of 138) | 0.262 (12th of 138) |
| EPA per play allowed | 0.011 (33rd of 138) | 0.079 (68th of 138) |
Key players
- Thomas Castellanos (Texas Tech): Threw for a career-high 362 yards and five touchdowns against West Virginia and added 102 rushing yards.
- J'Koby Williams (Texas Tech): Averages 8.0 yards per carry and has 416 rushing yards over his last three games.
- Anthony Holmes Jr. (Texas Tech): Leads Tech's pass rush with 6.5 sacks, 2.5 of them in the last three games.
- Kenny Johnson (Texas Tech): Leads Tech receivers with 632 yards and has three touchdown catches in his last three games.
- Drew Mestemaker (Oklahoma State): Has 29 touchdown passes at 9.6 yards per attempt, including 13 scores in his last three games.
- Justin Bowick (Oklahoma State): Has 790 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns, with 321 yards over his last three games.
- Caleb Hawkins (Oklahoma State): Has 1,081 rushing yards and averaged 7.6 per carry over his last three games.
- LaDainian Fields (Oklahoma State): Has seven interceptions, five of them in the last three games.
Numbers that matter
| Tech passing yards allowed per game | 286.9 (136th) | Mestemaker's 9.6 yards per attempt targets the most exposed part of Tech's roster. |
|---|---|---|
| Tech sacks per game | 3.11 (9th) | The best way for the Red Raiders to slow Oklahoma State's passing game. |
| OSU sacks allowed per game | 0.89 (8th) | Oklahoma State's protection is just as strong as Tech's rush, which is why this matchup decides the game. |
| OSU turnovers per game | 1.67 (118th) | Gives a Tech defense that ranks 26th in takeaways a real path to an upset. |
| Spread movement | +1.0 to -3.5 | Oklahoma State opened as an underdog and is now favored, matching our model's fair line. |
Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Oklahoma State Cowboys: quick answers
Who is favored in Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Oklahoma State Cowboys?
Oklahoma State is favored by 3.5 points (Oklahoma State -3.5).
What is the over/under for Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Oklahoma State Cowboys?
The total is 73 points.
When is Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Oklahoma State Cowboys?
Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 9:30 PM ET.
Where is Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Oklahoma State Cowboys played?
Boone Pickens Stadium.
Where is the money on Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Oklahoma State Cowboys?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Texas Tech Red Raiders: 73% of bets, 66% of the money; Oklahoma State Cowboys: 27% of bets, 34% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Oklahoma State Cowboys -3.5: 63% of bets, 72% of the money; Texas Tech Red Raiders +3.5: 37% of bets, 28% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 72.5: 91% of bets, 88% of the money; Under 72.5: 9% of bets, 12% of the money.