North Texas Mean Green vs UTSA Roadrunners prediction: Jahiem White's Ground Game Could Decide the American at the Alamodome
UTSA ranks 128th against the run, and North Texas brings a back averaging 7.2 yards a carry into a game that shapes the American race.
| Spread | North Texas -2.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 76 |
- Expect points on both sides, with North Texas leaning on White's runs while UTSA tries to keep pace through McCown's arm.
- Jahiem White against a UTSA run defense ranked 115th in rushing EPA allowed and 101st in stuff rate.
- Our model makes North Texas a 1.9-point favorite, slightly shorter than the 2.5-point market, and matches the 76.0 total.
White Runs Into Soft Ground
North Texas leads the American at 5-0, and UTSA can pull level with a win. The race runs through the Alamodome on Saturday night, and the cleanest edge in the building belongs to Jahiem White. He has 1,182 rushing yards at 7.2 yards per carry this season, with 16 touchdowns. He has been even better lately: 506 yards and seven scores over the last three games, capped by three touchdowns against Rice.
UTSA is poorly built to stop him. The Roadrunners allow 200.6 rushing yards per game, 128th of 138 FBS teams. They rank 115th in rushing EPA allowed (expected points added per play, a measure of how much each snap moves the scoreboard). They are 101st in stuff rate, the share of runs stopped at or behind the line. North Texas's own line is only average at creating push, 56th in line yards per carry. White does his damage after he clears the first wave, and that's exactly where UTSA struggles. Our projection has the Mean Green running for 202 yards.
Jackson Throws From Clean Pockets
The pass rush can't bail UTSA out either. The Roadrunners average 1.11 sacks per game, 123rd nationally. They rank 105th in havoc rate, the share of plays ending in a tackle for loss, sack, takeaway or pass breakup. North Texas allows 0.89 sacks per game, 8th in the country.
That leaves Tayven Jackson time to hunt deep. He averages 9.6 yards per attempt, with 23 touchdowns against five interceptions. The offense around him ranks 2nd in scoring at 44.7 points per game. Justin Stevenson is the target to fear, with 445 receiving yards over the last three games. He had 209 of them at Navy. Owen Pewee is UTSA's best hope for disruption, but three of his four sacks came in one game at Tulane.
UTSA's Week After the FAU Wreck
UTSA arrives fresh off its worst night of the season. Florida Atlantic beat the Roadrunners 60-29 as a 7-point underdog, and Jeff Traylor said afterward, "We lost a lot of kids tonight." Owen McCown was sacked six times. Right guard Darrell Jones and receiver DJ Allen left and did not return. Will Henderson III exited early in the third quarter with an ankle issue, and leading tackler Brandon Tucker was a surprise scratch. Traylor declined to project availability before Saturday's injury report.
If Henderson can't go, A'Marion Peterson and his 11 rushing touchdowns take the load. UTSA's real path to points runs through the air. North Texas ranks 118th in passing EPA allowed and 111th in explosiveness allowed, which measures how much damage opponents do on their successful plays. Mekhi Anderson torched FAU for 117 yards and two scores. Still, UTSA's defense has allowed 37.7 points per game over its last three, while North Texas has scored 49.7 in its last three.
Home Field and Hidden Yards
UTSA has history on its side. The Roadrunners are undefeated at home this season and have won seven straight Homecoming games. They are 6-1 against North Texas in San Antonio. They also get nine days of rest to the Mean Green's seven. Last year's 55-17 rout in Denton is the counterweight.
Both teams give away yardage. UTSA ranks 135th in penalty yards per game, and North Texas sits 126th. The finishing gap matters more. North Texas scores 4.72 points per scoring opportunity, 7th nationally. UTSA's defense ranks 92nd at limiting points on those trips. The Roadrunners' best special teams weapon is a kick return unit averaging 27.9 yards, 7th in the country.
What the Market Sees
The line opened with UTSA a 0.2-point underdog and has moved to North Texas -2.5, with the total at 76.0. Our model lands close. It makes North Texas a 1.9-point favorite and gives UTSA a 45% chance to win. Its fair total is also 76.0, so there's no gap on the number.
If you side with North Texas, the White angle travels with it. In games tested from 2024-25, when the favorite covered, its rushing went over its line 33.9% of the time. That compares with 25.3% if the two were unrelated.
Where the money is on North Texas Mean Green vs UTSA Roadrunners
On the Kalshi moneyline: North Texas Mean Green: 52% of bets, 69% of the money; UTSA Roadrunners: 48% of bets, 32% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: North Texas Mean Green -2.5: 56% of bets, 46% of the money; UTSA Roadrunners +2.5: 44% of bets, 54% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 76.5: 46% of bets, 64% of the money; Under 76.5: 54% of bets, 37% of the money.
North Texas Mean Green vs UTSA Roadrunners stats (this season)
| Stat | North Texas Mean Green | UTSA Roadrunners |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 7-2 | 7-2 |
| Points per game | 44.7 (2nd of 138) | 33.0 (35th of 138) |
| Points allowed per game | 30.9 (116th of 138) | 29.8 (111th of 138) |
| Yards per play | 7.48 (2nd of 138) | 6.04 (46th of 138) |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.86 (99th of 138) | 5.77 (95th of 138) |
| Passing yards per game | 342.8 (2nd of 138) | 229.7 (69th of 138) |
| Rushing yards per game | 188.2 (33rd of 138) | 181.1 (39th of 138) |
| 3rd-down conversion | 50.0% (13th of 138) | 40.9% (58th of 138) |
| Turnovers per game | 1.11 (49th of 138) | 0.89 (26th of 138) |
| Takeaways per game | 1.56 (26th of 138) | 1.44 (37th of 138) |
| EPA per play | 0.336 (5th of 138) | 0.218 (29th of 138) |
| EPA per play allowed | 0.093 (77th of 138) | 0.133 (97th of 138) |
Key players
- Tayven Jackson (North Texas): He is averaging 10.1 yards per attempt over his last three games with eight touchdown passes.
- Jahiem White (North Texas): He has 506 rushing yards and seven touchdowns in his last three games.
- Justin Stevenson (North Texas): He has 898 receiving yards and eight touchdowns on 55 catches this season.
- Davion Rhodes (North Texas): He has 5.0 sacks and 7.5 tackles for loss in eight games.
- Owen McCown (UTSA): He has 2,016 passing yards and 13 touchdowns but was sacked six times at FAU.
- Mekhi Anderson (UTSA): He caught six passes for 117 yards and two touchdowns in the FAU loss.
- A'Marion Peterson (UTSA): He has 11 rushing touchdowns on 63 carries and could carry more of the load if Henderson sits.
- Owen Pewee (UTSA): He has 4.0 sacks this season, three of them in one game at Tulane.
Numbers that matter
| UTSA rushing yards allowed rank | 128th | UTSA gives up 200.6 rushing yards per game, a direct opening for Jahiem White. |
|---|---|---|
| UTSA sacks per game rank | 123rd | The Roadrunners rarely get home, and North Texas ranks 8th in sacks allowed. |
| North Texas passing EPA allowed rank | 118th | This is UTSA's best route to keep pace through McCown and Anderson. |
| North Texas points per opportunity | 4.72 | That ranks 7th nationally, against a UTSA defense ranked 92nd in the same category. |
| Market spread | +2.5 | UTSA's number after a move toward North Texas, slightly wider than our 1.9. |
North Texas Mean Green vs UTSA Roadrunners: quick answers
Who is favored in North Texas Mean Green vs UTSA Roadrunners?
North Texas is favored by 2.5 points (North Texas -2.5).
What is the over/under for North Texas Mean Green vs UTSA Roadrunners?
The total is 76 points.
When is North Texas Mean Green vs UTSA Roadrunners?
Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 9:00 PM ET.
Where is North Texas Mean Green vs UTSA Roadrunners played?
Alamodome.
Where is the money on North Texas Mean Green vs UTSA Roadrunners?
On the Kalshi moneyline: North Texas Mean Green: 52% of bets, 69% of the money; UTSA Roadrunners: 48% of bets, 32% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: North Texas Mean Green -2.5: 56% of bets, 46% of the money; UTSA Roadrunners +2.5: 44% of bets, 54% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 76.5: 46% of bets, 64% of the money; Under 76.5: 54% of bets, 37% of the money.