Texas Longhorns vs LSU Tigers prediction: Arch Manning's shaky protection walks into LSU's Death Valley pass rush

The mismatch up front

Both teams are chasing a playoff spot, and the game will probably turn on one problem Texas hasn't solved all season. The Longhorns allow 3.0 sacks per game, 124th nationally. Their havoc allowed rate, the share of plays that end in a sack, tackle for loss, fumble, interception or pass breakup, is 18.5%, which ranks 126th.

LSU is built to punish that. The Tigers generate havoc on 20.8% of snaps, fifth in the country, and average 3.67 sacks per game, third. Princewill Umanmielen leads the rush with 9 sacks, and Jordan Ross has 3 over his last three games. Edge Gabriel Reliford is listed as probable after a long absence with an ACL injury.

The ground game offers Texas little relief. Its line yards per carry, the rushing yardage credited to the blockers, is 2.61, 130th. LSU allows 2.28 line yards per carry, fifth, and stuffs 24.7% of runs at or behind the line, seventh. Raleek Brown has found room lately at 5.7 yards per carry over three games, but our projection has Texas at just 80 rushing yards.

Manning has steadied the ship

The case for Texas starts with its quarterback's form. Arch Manning has completed 70.5% of his passes over his last three games, with 7 touchdowns against 2 interceptions. At Missouri he went 28-of-38 for 297 yards and three scores in a 34-20 win.

He gets his best red-zone target back. Cam Coleman missed the Missouri game but isn't on the availability report and is set to play; he has 7 touchdown catches in 8 games. Emmett Mosley V has 212 receiving yards over his last three.

The secondary waiting for them is the hardest test of the stretch. LSU allows -0.07 passing EPA per play (expected points added), fifth nationally, while Texas's passing offense ranks 52nd in that stat. Manning has to get the ball out fast or this turns into a long night.

LSU moves the chains, Texas stops them

LSU's offense lives on efficiency. Its success rate, the share of plays that keep an offense on schedule, is 50.6%, sixth in the country. Sam Leavitt has completed 75.4% of his throws over his last three games for 1,056 yards, and Jackson Harris has 429 receiving yards in that span on his way to 800 for the season.

Texas's defense is the best unit on the field. It allows 4.13 yards per play, second nationally, and a 33.9% success rate, eighth. Colin Simmons has 10 sacks in 6 games, and after only minimal snaps at Missouri he isn't on the availability report.

That pass rush could find a soft spot. Right tackle Weston Davis is either probable or out depending on the report, and Sean Thompkins Jr. filled in for him against Alabama. LSU linebacker Whit Weeks, out since the Sept. 26 Texas A&M game, was upgraded to questionable, while safety Dashawn Spears and linebacker Charles Ross II are out for the season. Another availability report is due Thursday night.

Finishing and hidden yards

LSU left points everywhere against Alabama: 0-for-4 on fourth down, a missed field goal and a turnover in Alabama territory in a 31-13 loss. That was no fluke. LSU scores 4.07 points per scoring opportunity, 48th, while Texas scores 4.58, 10th.

Texas's defense tightens near the goal line too, allowing 2.3 points per opportunity, fifth. Kicking favors the Longhorns as well: Texas is 14/15 on field goals, LSU 11/14.

Field position is LSU's other leak. Its net punting average is 33.4, 136th of 137. Texas gives some of it back with 1.56 turnovers per game, 111th.

Stakes and the number

Texas sits No. 6 in the CFP standings, and LSU needs to win out. No 9-3 team has ever received an at-large bid, so the loser's path narrows sharply.

The market has LSU favored by 4 after opening at 4.5, with the move toward Texas. Our fair line is LSU by 4.74 with a total of 46.05, both close to the market's numbers. We give LSU a 62% chance to win at home. The Longhorns have covered three straight, though they also lost outright to Florida as 12.5-point favorites.