South Carolina Gamecocks vs Arkansas Razorbacks prediction: LaNorris Sellers' Ankle and a Patched-Up Line Test Arkansas' Soft Run Defense
South Carolina wins by running its quarterback, and Arkansas can't stop the run, but a sprained ankle and three missing linemen make Saturday's ground game the question that decides the number.
| Spread | South Carolina -7 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 51.5 |
- South Carolina should control the game on the ground and win the red-zone trips, while Arkansas tries to hang around through the air.
- Sellers and the Gamecocks' run game against an Arkansas defense that ranks 122nd in rushing EPA allowed.
- Our model makes South Carolina an 8.45-point favorite, a bit more than the market's 7, with the total close to fair.
Running on a Bad Ankle
South Carolina's offense starts with the run. The Gamecocks rank 18th in rushing EPA (expected points added per play) and 9th in line yards per carry, a measure of how much push the front gets before the back is touched. LaNorris Sellers leads that attack with 637 rushing yards and seven rushing scores, and he has run for five touchdowns in his last three games.
Arkansas is the right opponent for it. The Razorbacks allow 0.175 rushing EPA per play, 122nd of 138, and their stuff rate (share of runs stopped at or behind the line) ranks 106th. They give up 156.4 rushing yards a game.
The catch is who's available. Sellers sprained his left ankle against Texas A&M and is listed questionable, though X-rays showed no fracture and Beamer called his concern level "very low." He ran for just 34 yards that night, but one of his carries was a 41-yard touchdown with 1:19 left while he was hobbling. Cutter Woods took first-team reps Sunday. South Carolina has also ruled out three offensive linemen, Josiah Thompson, Dayne Arnett and Seth Smith, plus running back Matt Fuller. That puts more on Jabree Coleman, who has averaged 3.5 yards per carry over his last three games. If Sellers can't run freely, the edge in the trenches shrinks.
Jackson Under Pressure
Arkansas' quarterback KJ Jackson faces a different problem. His line allows havoc (plays ending in a tackle for loss, sack, fumble, interception or pass breakup) on 19.1% of snaps, 133rd in the country, and gives up 2.56 sacks a game. South Carolina's pass rush ranks 21st at 2.67 sacks per game. Tomiwa Durojaiye has two sacks in his last three games, and Fred Johnson has piled up 36 tackles over that stretch.
Jackson has thrown one touchdown pass against two interceptions in his last three starts, and he completed 46.7% of his throws at Auburn. Still, the air is Arkansas' best way in. South Carolina allows 0.263 passing EPA per play, 109th nationally, and ranks 132nd in takeaways. Chris Marshall leads the Razorbacks with 666 receiving yards, and Antonio Jordan has caught 13 passes for 203 yards over the last three games. Plays that stay on schedule against that secondary are how Arkansas keeps this within a score.
Where Drives Go to Die
Even when Arkansas moves the ball, it struggles to finish. The Razorbacks score 3.06 points per scoring opportunity, 118th, and have made 13 of 20 field goals. Their defense is worse in the same spot, allowing 4.73 points per opportunity, 136th of 138. South Carolina converts its chances at 4.44 points per trip, 24th.
That gap shows up in close games. Arkansas has lost nine straight one-possession games dating to 2025, including a 26-23 loss at Auburn in which it was outscored 23-13 after halftime. Silverfield called it "a tale of two halves," and questions about his job are growing in his first season.
South Carolina has its own wrinkle: offensive coordinator Kendal Briles ran Arkansas' offense and quarterbacks from 2020 to 2022. Briles was running Arkansas' offense the last time these teams met, a 44-30 Arkansas win in 2022.
What the Number Says
South Carolina opened as a 7.5-point favorite and has moved to 7, with the total at 51.5. Our model makes the Gamecocks 8.45-point favorites and projects a 29.7 to 21.3 final, giving Arkansas a 30.0% chance to win. The total lands near the market at 51.0.
The recent ATS records point both ways. South Carolina covered against Tennessee, Oklahoma and Texas A&M. Arkansas covered as a 14-point underdog against Tennessee and as a 10.5-point underdog at Auburn, and its schedule has been tougher, with an average opponent SP+ of 12.2 against South Carolina's 6.9. For the first half, our number makes the Gamecocks 4.83-point favorites with a total of 26.29.
What to Watch
- Sellers' mobility early: designed quarterback runs in the first quarter will show how much the ankle limits him.
- South Carolina's reshuffled line: whether the push holds up without three linemen.
- Red-zone trips: Arkansas has to turn drives into touchdowns, not field goals, to keep pace.
- Turnovers: South Carolina ranks 93rd in giveaways, Arkansas 111th; a short field could swing a close game.
Where the money is on South Carolina Gamecocks vs Arkansas Razorbacks
On the Kalshi moneyline: South Carolina Gamecocks: 75% of bets, 93% of the money; Arkansas Razorbacks: 25% of bets, 7% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: South Carolina Gamecocks -7.5: 69% of bets, 45% of the money; Arkansas Razorbacks +7.5: 31% of bets, 55% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 51.5: 50% of bets, 63% of the money; Under 51.5: 50% of bets, 37% of the money.
South Carolina Gamecocks vs Arkansas Razorbacks stats (this season)
| Stat | South Carolina Gamecocks | Arkansas Razorbacks |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 6-3 | 3-6 |
| Points per game | 34.7 (23rd of 138) | 20.0 (122nd of 138) |
| Points allowed per game | 23.4 (60th of 138) | 27.4 (95th of 138) |
| Yards per play | 6.48 (24th of 138) | 4.87 (130th of 138) |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.18 (40th of 138) | 5.86 (100th of 138) |
| Passing yards per game | 247.1 (41st of 138) | 225.4 (76th of 138) |
| Rushing yards per game | 205.4 (20th of 138) | 112.4 (122nd of 138) |
| 3rd-down conversion | 46.4% (23rd of 138) | 43.3% (40th of 138) |
| Turnovers per game | 1.44 (93rd of 138) | 1.56 (111th of 138) |
| Takeaways per game | 0.67 (132nd of 138) | 1.11 (72nd of 138) |
| EPA per play | 0.202 (34th of 138) | 0.032 (112th of 138) |
| EPA per play allowed | 0.101 (83rd of 138) | 0.165 (113th of 138) |
Key players
- LaNorris Sellers (South Carolina): Questionable with an ankle sprain but expected to play, he has 637 rushing yards and 17 touchdown passes this season.
- Mazeo Bennett (South Carolina): He has caught a touchdown in each of his last three games, totaling 261 yards over that stretch.
- Tomiwa Durojaiye (South Carolina): His 4.0 sacks lead a pass rush aimed at a line that ranks 107th in sacks allowed.
- Fred Johnson (South Carolina): He has 70 tackles this season, including 36 in the last three games.
- KJ Jackson (Arkansas): He has 1,853 passing yards but only one touchdown pass in his last three games.
- Chris Marshall (Arkansas): He leads the Razorbacks with 48 catches for 666 yards.
- Antonio Jordan (Arkansas): He has emerged lately with 203 receiving yards over the last three games, including 106 against Missouri.
- Cam Settles (Arkansas): He ran for 100 yards at Auburn and is averaging 4.7 yards per carry over his last three games.
Numbers that matter
| Arkansas rushing EPA allowed | 122nd | The run defense ranks near the bottom of the FBS, which plays into South Carolina's quarterback-run offense. |
|---|---|---|
| Arkansas havoc allowed | 19.1% | That ranks 133rd and gives South Carolina's 21st-ranked sack rate a clear target. |
| Arkansas points per opportunity allowed | 4.73 | Only two FBS defenses are worse at keeping drives out of the end zone. |
| South Carolina passing EPA allowed | 109th | The Gamecocks' secondary is Arkansas' best way to keep the game close. |
| Our fair spread | 8.45 | Our model makes South Carolina a slightly bigger favorite than the market's 7. |
South Carolina Gamecocks vs Arkansas Razorbacks: quick answers
Who is favored in South Carolina Gamecocks vs Arkansas Razorbacks?
South Carolina is favored by 7 points (South Carolina -7).
What is the over/under for South Carolina Gamecocks vs Arkansas Razorbacks?
The total is 51.5 points.
When is South Carolina Gamecocks vs Arkansas Razorbacks?
Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 7:45 PM ET.
Where is South Carolina Gamecocks vs Arkansas Razorbacks played?
Razorback Stadium.
Where is the money on South Carolina Gamecocks vs Arkansas Razorbacks?
On the Kalshi moneyline: South Carolina Gamecocks: 75% of bets, 93% of the money; Arkansas Razorbacks: 25% of bets, 7% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: South Carolina Gamecocks -7.5: 69% of bets, 45% of the money; Arkansas Razorbacks +7.5: 31% of bets, 55% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 51.5: 50% of bets, 63% of the money; Under 51.5: 50% of bets, 37% of the money.