UNC Greensboro Spartans vs UIC Flames prediction: UIC's ball hawks test a UNC Greensboro roster built from scratch
Jerod Haase's rebuilt Spartans bring their first road loss into Chicago against a Flames defense that has forced turnovers at the third-highest rate in the country, with a 20-point spread on the line.
UNC Greensboro Spartans covered the closing spread (UNC Greensboro Spartans +19.5). The game went over the closing total of 148.5.
| Spread | UIC -20 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 148.5 |
- UIC should win the possession battle with steals and offensive rebounds; UNCG needs RJ Greer's shooting to keep a slow game within reach.
- UIC's pressure guards, led by Mekhi Lowery, against Dionte Neal, who runs UNCG's offense at 6.0 assists per game.
- UIC has moved from -18 to -20 since our feed first saw the game; the Flames' pace ranks 302nd, working against a 149.75 total.
Possessions decide this one
The case for a lopsided night in Chicago starts with how often UIC takes the ball away. The Flames are forcing turnovers on 31.3% of opponent possessions, third in Division I, and their steal rate ranks third as well. Mekhi Lowery is the point of that spear at 3.0 steals per game. Two games, one of them against a non-Division I opponent, is a small sample, but the pressure carries over from last season, when UIC's forced turnover rate ranked 21st.
UNCG's guards have protected the ball so far, with a turnover rate (giveaways per 100 possessions) that ranks 73rd. The worry is how they create. Only 31.1% of the Spartans' made baskets come off an assist, 360th in the country, which means a lot of one-on-one dribbling into a defense built to strip it.
The glass tilts the same way. UNCG grabs just 20.0% of its own misses, 347th nationally, and Elon outrebounded the Spartans 45-22 on Friday. UIC rebounds 42.4% of its misses, 51st. Second chances for the Flames and one-and-done trips for UNCG would add up fast.
A program starting over
Almost nothing about last season's UNCG applies here. Players on this roster logged just 2.1% of the program's minutes a year ago, and the staff is new too: Jerod Haase was named head coach on March 18 after Mike Jones was fired, and he brought in 12 newcomers. Last season's team ranked among the worst defenses in the country, but that group is gone, so its numbers say little about this one.
UIC is the opposite case. The Flames return four starters and 58.6% of last season's minutes. Added familiarity on the sideline: UIC coach Rob Ehsan and Haase previously worked together at UAB and Stanford, so neither side is guessing at the other's habits.
Greer's hot hand, Grant's cold one
RJ Greer, a transfer from Davidson, leads UNCG at 16.5 points per game and has hit 7 of 12 from three. He set a career high with 18 points at Elon. The Spartans need that shooting to hold up, because Cameron Grant, the Stanford transfer who uses the most possessions on the team (27.2% usage), went 1 of 10 from deep in that loss.
UIC's offense runs through Rashund Washington Jr., who posted 19 points and 12 rebounds against Robert Morris. One availability question hangs over the Flames: a report before the season listed Furman transfer Asa Thomas out for the season with a hip injury. UIC hasn't confirmed it, an online roster still lists him, and he hasn't shown up among the team's top contributors through two games.
Reading 20 points and 149.75
The market has leaned toward the home side. UIC opened at -18 when our feed first recorded the game and now sits at -20 across 8 books. The Flames covered their only lined game, beating Robert Morris by 23 after trailing at halftime.
The total is the more interesting number. UIC plays slowly, with a pace that ranks 302nd, and it ranked 312th last season. Both teams went under in their only lined game. UNCG fell behind 22-39 at the half at Elon, which shows how quickly a deficit can pile up if the turnovers come early. That cuts both ways for the total: a UIC blowout can produce runout points, but a slow, grinding UNCG half-court offense keeps possessions down.
Last season's final adjusted ratings, a weak guide for UNCG given the turnover, had UIC 119th and UNCG 305th in net efficiency.
UNC Greensboro Spartans vs UIC Flames line movement and odds
| Book | Spartans ML | Flames ML | Spartans spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1150 | -2500 | +20.5 (-110) | o148.5 (-105) |
| BetRivers | — | — | +19.5 (-105) | o148.5 (-109) |
| DraftKings | +1500 | -3600 | +19.5 (-102) | o148.5 (-108) |
| ESPN BET | +1800 | -6000 | +20.5 (-105) | o148.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +1800 | -4000 | +20 (-110) | o148.5 (-105) |
| FanDuel | +1600 | -4500 | +19.5 (-102) | o148.5 (-105) |
| Hard Rock Bet | — | — | +19.5 (-105) | o148.5 (-110) |
Key players
- Rashund Washington Jr. (UIC): He averages 17.0 points and 7.5 rebounds and had 19 and 12 against Robert Morris.
- Mekhi Lowery (UIC): His 3.0 steals per game anchor a defense ranked third in forced turnover rate.
- Ahmad Henderson II (UIC): He is scoring 14.5 points per game on 54.5% shooting from three.
- RJ Greer (UNC Greensboro): The Davidson transfer averages 16.5 points and has made 7 of 12 threes.
- Dionte Neal (UNC Greensboro): He is averaging 6.0 assists and shooting 70% from the field in 33.0 minutes a night.
- Cameron Grant (UNC Greensboro): The Stanford transfer carries a team-high 27.2% usage but is shooting 23.5% from three.
Numbers that matter
| UIC forced turnover rate | 31.3% | Third in Division I, facing a UNCG offense that rarely creates through the pass. |
|---|---|---|
| UNCG offensive rebound rate | 20.0% | Ranks 347th, and Elon won the boards 45-22 in UNCG's last game. |
| UNCG returning minutes | 2.1% | A new coach and 12 newcomers make last season's numbers nearly irrelevant. |
| Spread | -20 | UIC has moved two points from -18 since our feed first saw the game. |
| UIC pace rank | 302nd | A slow Flames tempo is the main check on a 149.75 total. |
UNC Greensboro Spartans vs UIC Flames: quick answers
What was the final score of UNC Greensboro Spartans vs UIC Flames?
UNC Greensboro Spartans 72, UIC Flames 82 (final). UNC Greensboro Spartans covered the closing spread (UNC Greensboro Spartans +19.5). The game went over the closing total of 148.5.
Who is favored in UNC Greensboro Spartans vs UIC Flames?
UIC is favored by 20 points (UIC -20).
What is the over/under for UNC Greensboro Spartans vs UIC Flames?
The total is 148.5 points.
When is UNC Greensboro Spartans vs UIC Flames?
Monday, November 9, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET.
Has the line moved for UNC Greensboro Spartans vs UIC Flames?
Yes: UNC Greensboro Spartans opened +17.5 and is now +19.5, and the total moved from 149.5 to 148.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).