Charlotte 49ers vs Seton Hall Pirates prediction: Keyshuan Tillery's scorching start runs into Seton Hall's stingiest defense
Charlotte's new lead guard has torched two defenses, and the Pirates have yet to let anyone breathe at The Palestra's doorstep.
Seton Hall Pirates covered the closing spread (Charlotte 49ers +3.5). The game went under the closing total of 130.5.
| Spread | Seton Hall -4 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 131 |
- Expect a slow, physical game where Seton Hall's pressure squeezes possessions and Charlotte needs its shooting to carry the night.
- Tillery, averaging 26.5 points on 34.5% usage, against a Pirates defense holding opponents to 34.4% inside the arc.
- Seton Hall is a steady 5-point favorite, but the total has fallen from 137.5 to 131.75; the Pirates are 0-2 to the under.
Tillery against the wall
Charlotte and Seton Hall have played once before, in 1977, and neither roster looks much like the one that finished last season. What arrives at The Palestra on Monday night is a clean test: the hottest scorer on the floor against the defense that has given up the least.
That scorer is Keyshuan Tillery. He came off the bench at Cincinnati last season and averaged 3.8 points. Through two games for Charlotte he is averaging 26.5, and he hit 7 of 10 threes in the opener at Indiana State. His effective field goal percentage, which counts threes as 1.5 makes, sits at 67.2%. As a team the 49ers are shooting 41.9% from deep, 41st nationally.
Seton Hall has allowed 51.0 points per game, 14th of 364. Opponents have posted a 37.1% effective field goal rate, 25th in the country, and have made just 34.4% of their twos. The caveat is the competition: Saint Peter's and LIU are not Charlotte, and the Pirates' 24-point opening win came against a team that ranked 251st in adjusted net efficiency last season. Tillery is the first real stress test this defense has faced.
Turnovers cut both ways
The possession battle is where this game tilts. Charlotte gives the ball away on 19.5% of its trips, 253rd nationally, and Seton Hall's hands are active: Elijah Fisher and Roddie Anderson III are each averaging 2.5 steals. If the Pirates turn live-ball steals into transition, Charlotte's shooting edge shrinks fast.
Seton Hall is just as careless, though. The Pirates' 21.4% turnover rate ranks 305th, and that sloppiness is why LIU hung around last Thursday. Charlotte won't punish it much, forcing turnovers on only 15.2% of possessions (291st).
The Pirates make up for some of that at the foul line. Their free throw rate of 53.6% (free throws attempted per shot) ranks 33rd, but they convert only 69.2%. They did close out LIU by hitting 8 of 10 in the final 2:08, and a five-point game could come down to the same thing.
Two rebuilt rosters
Last season's numbers are a weak guide here. Charlotte returns just 9.0% of its minutes under first-year coach Wes Miller, hired in March after Aaron Fearne's exit. Seton Hall returns 17.9%. Treat last season's ratings as background, not a forecast.
The Pirates' new pieces have been uneven. Anderson, the Xavier transfer, leads them at 17.0 points per game and scored 19 against LIU. Terry Copeland Jr. has made 87.5% of his shots. Del Jones, who averaged 17.2 points at Radford last season, has not scored in two starts. Kareem Thomas, a Dartmouth transfer, was cleared for the Nov. 2 opener after a groin injury in an exhibition, and his status since then hasn't been confirmed. He does not appear among the Pirates' leading players in the packet through two games.
Charlotte leans on Louisiana transfer Dorian Finister as its connector. He is averaging 4.0 assists and 6.0 rebounds, and the 49ers have reported no injuries.
A total sliding south
Both teams play slowly. Charlotte averages 66.3 possessions per 40 minutes (317th), and Seton Hall averages 65.5 (333rd). Fewer possessions mean fewer chances for Tillery to swing the game alone.
The market has noticed. The total opened at 137.5 in our feed and has dropped to 131.75, while the spread has not moved off Seton Hall -5 across eight books. The Pirates have gone under in both games, holding opponents to 22.0 first-half points (12th). Charlotte is 1-1 against the spread and 1-1 on totals.
- Watch: Tillery's early three-point volume against Seton Hall's closeouts.
- Watch: the turnover count at halftime, for both sides.
- Watch: whether Jones or Thomas gives the Pirates a second scorer behind Anderson.
Charlotte 49ers vs Seton Hall Pirates line movement and odds
| Book | 49ers ML | Pirates ML | 49ers spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +165 | -200 | +4.5 (-115) | o130.5 (-115) |
| BetRivers | +160 | -200 | +3.5 (-105) | o130.5 (-108) |
| DraftKings | +164 | -198 | +3.5 (-102) | o130.5 (-110) |
| ESPN BET | +155 | -185 | +3.5 (-110) | o130.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +160 | -195 | +4 (-110) | o131 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +162 | -196 | +4.5 (-110) | o130.5 (-115) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +160 | -200 | +3.5 (-105) | o130.5 (-105) |
| Caesars | +162 | -195 | +4 (-110) | o130.5 (-110) |
Key players
- Keyshuan Tillery (Charlotte): Averaging 26.5 points on a 34.5% usage rate after scoring 3.8 per game off the bench at Cincinnati last season.
- Dorian Finister (Charlotte): The Louisiana transfer is averaging 4.0 assists and 6.0 rebounds, including a 10-rebound night at Indiana State.
- Frank Oguche (Charlotte): Has made 3 of 7 threes and carries a 161.1 offensive rating in 20 minutes a night.
- Roddie Anderson III (Seton Hall): The Xavier transfer averages 17.0 points and has made 7 of 12 threes.
- Elijah Fisher (Seton Hall): Averaging 2.5 steals and had 12 points and 5 assists against LIU.
- Terry Copeland Jr. (Seton Hall): Shooting 87.5% from the field, though just 54.5% at the line.
- Del Jones (Seton Hall): Averaged 17.2 points at Radford last season but is scoreless through two starts.
Numbers that matter
| Seton Hall points allowed | 51.0 | Ranks 14th nationally, though against Saint Peter's and LIU. |
|---|---|---|
| Tillery scoring | 26.5 | Charlotte's new lead guard has carried the offense through two wins. |
| Seton Hall turnover rate | 21.4% | Ranks 305th and is the Pirates' clearest weakness. |
| Seton Hall free throw rate | 53.6% | Ranks 33rd, a steady source of points in a slow game. |
| Total | 131.75 | Down from 137.5 when our feed first saw the game. |
Charlotte 49ers vs Seton Hall Pirates: quick answers
What was the final score of Charlotte 49ers vs Seton Hall Pirates?
Charlotte 49ers 62, Seton Hall Pirates 68 (final). Seton Hall Pirates covered the closing spread (Charlotte 49ers +3.5). The game went under the closing total of 130.5.
Who is favored in Charlotte 49ers vs Seton Hall Pirates?
Seton Hall is favored by 4 points (Seton Hall -4).
What is the over/under for Charlotte 49ers vs Seton Hall Pirates?
The total is 131 points.
When is Charlotte 49ers vs Seton Hall Pirates?
Monday, November 9, 2026 at 9:00 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Charlotte 49ers vs Seton Hall Pirates?
Yes: Charlotte 49ers opened +4.5 and is now +3.5, and the total moved from 135.5 to 130.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).