Illinois St Redbirds vs Purdue Boilermakers prediction: Purdue's missing jump shot puts Daniel Jacobsen at the center

A jump shot gone missing

Purdue was supposed to spend November tuning up. Instead the Boilermakers open Mackey Arena at 0-2, one buzzer-beater from a very different week, and their first home visitor was picked second in the Missouri Valley. It is also the first of five straight home games, a chance to reset before the season gets away.

The losses came in different shapes. Purdue fell 78-72 to Gonzaga on a neutral floor, then lost 83-80 in double overtime at home to Valparaiso when Justus McNair hit a three at the buzzer. Painter said afterward that Purdue should have fouled instead of allowing the shot.

The common thread is shooting. Purdue is making 20.4% of its threes, 357th of 364 Division I teams. Omer Mayer is 1 of 10 from deep and Antione West Jr. is 1 of 11. That is what replacing Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer and Trey Kaufman-Renn, who have all used up their eligibility, looks like in week one. One possible fix is on the bench: Jack Benter made 40.9% of his threes last season but played only 11 minutes in the opener, something Painter addressed.

Jacobsen against no rim protection

If the perimeter stays cold, the offense runs through Daniel Jacobsen, and the matchup favors him. The center is scoring 25.0 points a game on 75% shooting and uses 29.1% of Purdue's possessions while on the floor, more than any starter.

Illinois State has almost nothing to stop him at the rim. The Redbirds block shots at the 348th-highest rate in the country, and last season's team ranked 339th in the same stat, so this is a roster trait, not an early-season fluke. Teams are making 53.3% of their twos against them. Expect Purdue to play inside out, with Jacobsen drawing fouls and feeding cutters, until its guards find a rhythm.

Kinziger and a remade backcourt

Illinois State returns only 34.0% of last season's minutes, so last year's numbers say little. What it does have is a guard who is on fire. Johnny Kinziger is averaging 23.0 points and has made 11 of 16 threes, including 30 points in a 90-85 overtime loss at Saint Mary's. Xavier transfer Malik Messina-Moore adds 17.0 points a game.

As a team, the Redbirds have an effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) of 68.0%, third nationally. A 100-55 rout of Central State inflates that, and Kinziger shot 32.8% on threes last season. A cooler night is likely. But the Saint Mary's game showed this offense can score against a good opponent on the road.

Possessions will be scarce

Both teams play slowly: Illinois State ranks 340th in pace and Purdue 341st. Fewer possessions shrink the number of chances for a heavy favorite to pull away, which matters against a big spread.

Ball security is Illinois State's weak spot. The Redbirds rank 271st in turnover rate, but Purdue ranks 336th in forcing turnovers, so the Boilermakers aren't built to punish it. If the game is close late, free throws tilt toward Purdue, which shoots 79.2% at the line against Illinois State's 65.4%.

What the market is pricing

Purdue is a 15.5-point favorite with a total of 144.5, and neither number has moved since our feed first recorded them Sunday. The market is still pricing Purdue closer to last season's team, which finished eighth in adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents). Illinois State finished 89th. Both rosters have turned over heavily since then.

This season's results point the other way. Purdue is 0-2 against the spread. Illinois State covered as a 6.5-point underdog at Saint Mary's, a top-25 team by last season's adjusted ratings.