SIU-Edwardsville Cougars vs Missouri Tigers prediction: SIUE's turnover hunters test Missouri's tidy, rebuilt offense
SIU Edwardsville's only real path to staying within 29.5 points runs through steals, and Missouri has barely given the ball away.
Missouri Tigers covered the closing spread (SIU-Edwardsville Cougars +29.5). The game went over the closing total of 149.5.
| Spread | Missouri -29.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 149 |
- Missouri's size and shooting should build a big halftime cushion; SIUE needs live-ball turnovers and another second-half push to keep the margin respectable.
- SIUE's forced turnover rate, 24th nationally, against a Missouri offense ranked 4th in turnover rate.
- Missouri has climbed to -29.5 from -28.5, and both of its games so far have gone over the total.
Where SIUE can steal possessions
A 29.5-point spread asks one question of the underdog: is there anything it does well enough to bend the game? For SIU Edwardsville, the answer is pressure. The Cougars force turnovers on 27.0% of opponent possessions (turnover rate is giveaways per 100 possessions), 24th of 364 teams, and their steal rate ranks 41st.
Missouri has been close to spotless. The Tigers turn it over on 9.7% of possessions, 4th in the country. That is a sharp break from last season, when they ranked 271st in the same stat, and it reflects a mostly new backcourt.
The caveat is the competition. Two of SIUE's three games came against Eureka and Concordia-Chicago, neither of which carries a Division I rating, so the Cougars' pressure numbers have not yet been tested by anything like an SEC ball-handling group.
Missouri's shooting, SIUE's reluctance
Missouri is making 40.0% of its threes, 52nd nationally, and it gets real size on the floor, with a minutes-weighted average height of 79.8 inches. SIUE plays smaller, at 76.6 inches.
The Cougars rarely shoot from outside. Their 3-point attempt rate ranks 354th, meaning almost no team takes a smaller share of its shots from deep. That matters because Missouri's perimeter defense has been its weak spot, allowing 39.0% from three, 325th. SIUE's offense is built to attack the rim instead, and that runs into a Missouri defense that blocks 18.8% of opponent two-point attempts, 24th in the country. The Cougars may not be equipped to exploit the one door Missouri has left open.
Two rebuilt rosters, one thin bench
Missouri returns just 19.4% of last season's minutes, so last season's numbers say little about this group. The newcomers have carried it. Kansas transfer Bryson Tiller is averaging 18.0 points and 9.0 rebounds, and he scored 26 in the loss to Saint Louis. Jason Crowe Jr. has the highest usage among the regular starters, but he went 3 of 18 from the field against the Billikens. Mark Mitchell is eligible, though a legal case means that can still change.
The Tigers are short-handed. Jaylen Carey was suspended indefinitely for violating team rules, with no update since Nov. 6. Freshman wing Aidan Chronister is expected to miss the rest of November with a non-shooting hand injury. Backup center Luke Northweather missed the opener and was still out for the Nov. 6 game, and his return has not been confirmed. Annor Boateng is out for the season.
SIUE also turned over its roster, keeping 35.3% of last season's minutes. Jordan Pickett leads the Cougars at 13.7 points, and Northern Illinois transfer Gianni Cobb poured in 20 at Lipscomb. No SIUE injury news surfaced this week.
Game shape and the number
Missouri tends to settle things early. The Tigers score 47.0 first-half points per game, 42nd nationally, and led Cleveland State 56-18 at the break. SIUE fell behind 46-35 at halftime at Lipscomb, then rallied and lost by a point, covering as a 7-point underdog.
Last season's final adjusted ratings (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) had Missouri 57th in net efficiency and SIUE 253rd. Missouri has won all four previous meetings at Mizzou Arena, and the closest was a 14-point game in 2012.
The spread has moved toward Missouri, from -28.5 to -29.5, while the total has barely shifted to 148.75. Missouri's two games closed at 160.5 and 161.75 and both went over. Missouri's defense, 170th in raw efficiency, has given up points, and the total sits at 148.75.
SIU-Edwardsville Cougars vs Missouri Tigers line movement and odds
| Book | Cougars ML | Tigers ML | Cougars spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | — | — | +29.5 (-110) | o149.5 (-105) |
| BetRivers | — | — | +29.5 (-108) | o149.5 (-107) |
| DraftKings | +5000 | -100000 | +29.5 (-108) | o149.5 (-105) |
| ESPN BET | — | — | +29.5 (-115) | o149.5 (-105) |
| Fanatics | +8000 | -50000 | +29.5 (-110) | o149 (-110) |
| FanDuel | — | — | +29.5 (-110) | o148.5 (-115) |
| Hard Rock Bet | — | — | +29.5 (-105) | o148.5 (-115) |
Key players
- Bryson Tiller (Missouri): Averaging 18.0 points and 2.5 blocks, and he has made 5 of 9 threes.
- Mark Mitchell (Missouri): Scoring 16.0 points on 75% shooting, with his eligibility tied to an ongoing legal case.
- Jason Crowe Jr. (Missouri): Carries a 28.4% usage rate but shot 3 of 18 against Saint Louis.
- Jamier Jones (Missouri): The Providence transfer has averaged 13.0 points in 18 minutes a night.
- Jordan Pickett (SIU Edwardsville): Leads the Cougars at 13.7 points and has hit 7 of 15 threes.
- Gianni Cobb (SIU Edwardsville): Has a team-high 29.1% usage rate and scored 20 at Lipscomb.
- Brennan Miller (SIU Edwardsville): Leads the team with 7.7 rebounds and adds 2.0 blocks per game.
- David Wilson (SIU Edwardsville): Shooting 65% from the field with 2.0 blocks per game.
Numbers that matter
| SIUE forced turnover rate | 27.0% | 24th nationally and the Cougars' clearest lever, though mostly built against teams without Division I ratings. |
|---|---|---|
| Missouri turnover rate | 9.7% | 4th in the country, a huge change from a 271st ranking last season. |
| SIUE 3-point attempt rate | 27.4% | Ranks 354th, so SIUE is unlikely to exploit Missouri's 325th-ranked 3-point defense. |
| Spread | -29.5 | Missouri's line has moved up from -28.5 since our feed first saw the game. |
| Missouri returning minutes | 19.4% | So little of last season's roster remains that last season's Missouri numbers are a weak guide. |
SIU-Edwardsville Cougars vs Missouri Tigers: quick answers
What was the final score of SIU-Edwardsville Cougars vs Missouri Tigers?
SIU-Edwardsville Cougars 58, Missouri Tigers 96 (final). Missouri Tigers covered the closing spread (SIU-Edwardsville Cougars +29.5). The game went over the closing total of 149.5.
Who is favored in SIU-Edwardsville Cougars vs Missouri Tigers?
Missouri is favored by 29.5 points (Missouri -29.5).
What is the over/under for SIU-Edwardsville Cougars vs Missouri Tigers?
The total is 149 points.
When is SIU-Edwardsville Cougars vs Missouri Tigers?
Monday, November 9, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET.
Has the line moved for SIU-Edwardsville Cougars vs Missouri Tigers?
Yes: SIU-Edwardsville Cougars opened +28.5 and is now +29.5, and the total moved from 148.5 to 149.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).