Portland Pilots vs Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors prediction: Hawai'i's turnover pressure puts Portland's 116-point start to the test

The UT Arlington yardstick

Strip away the blowouts and this Outrigger Rainbow Classic finale comes down to one shared opponent. Portland closed as a 2.25-point favorite against UT Arlington on Nov. 6 and lost 89-85. Two days later, Hawai'i beat the same team 71-62 at Bankoh Arena.

The rest of each résumé tells you less. Portland's wins over Willamette and Bethesda, the latter 130-56, have pushed its pace to first in the country. Hawai'i's one other real test was a 74-73 escape against Seattle U, settled by Jaden Matingou's 15-footer at the buzzer.

Last season's numbers don't help much either. Hawai'i finished 103rd in adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) and Portland 216th, but both rosters were rebuilt. Hawai'i returns just 9.7% of last season's minutes and Portland 25.7%. Eran Ganot, in his 12th season, is working with 13 newcomers.

Ball security under pressure

This is where Portland's gaudy numbers could crack. Hawai'i's defense is forcing turnovers on 24.8% of opponent possessions, 50th nationally. Portland is giving the ball away on 19.8% of its own trips, which ranks 258th, and that's with two lopsided games padding the sample.

Sloppiness isn't new for the Pilots. They also ranked near the bottom of Division I in turnover rate last season, and Shantay Legans lost his primary playmaker, Joel Foxwell, to Arizona State. Matingou leads the Hawai'i guards who jump passing lanes. Every live-ball turnover takes away a possession Portland needs to keep pace.

O'Donnell against a new frontcourt

James O'Donnell is the Pilots' engine. The forward is averaging 19.7 points and 12.0 rebounds, and he put up 29 and 20 against Bethesda, the program's first 20-rebound game since 1979. Against UT Arlington, though, he was held to 12 points.

That night RJ Nance Jr. carried the load with 25 points off the bench, and he leads Portland in usage without a start. Hunter Adam, the Davidson transfer, has hit 9 of his 20 threes.

Hawai'i answers with Zack Davidson, the Northern Arizona transfer averaging 17.3 points without attempting a three. He scored 21 against UT Arlington during the 19-3 run that broke open a game tied at halftime. Chance Trujillo provides the spacing, making 10 of 21 from deep.

Short rest, home floor

Portland is playing its third game in four days at the Rainbow Classic, while Hawai'i has slept in its own beds for the whole event. Both teams come in on one day of rest. The Rainbow Warriors are 3-0 at home in their first season in the Mountain West after winning the Big West and reaching the NCAA Tournament last year.

Point guard Cuff has been cleared after ACL and meniscus surgery and played in the opener. As of Nov. 6, two unnamed Hawai'i players were recovering from ailments, and the program hasn't said who they are. Portland listed no injuries as of Nov. 7.

Where the number sits

The spread has drifted toward the home team, from Hawai'i -6.5 when our feed first saw it to -7.25 now. The total rose from 155.0 to 157.0, which fits Portland's tempo.

Hawai'i has yet to cover this season, though, including that 9.5-point miss against UT Arlington, where the game stayed under the total. Its defense has allowed 59.7 points per game, 58th nationally. Portland's game against the same opponent went over. Which team sets the pace decides which of those results repeats.