Louisiana Tech Bulldogs vs LSU Tigers prediction: Louisiana Tech wants a crawl; LSU's rebuilt Tigers want a sprint

A tempo clash sets the margin

Louisiana Tech hasn't beaten LSU since 1988, and nobody in the market expects that to change tonight at the Pete Maravich Assembly Center. The real question is how big the gap gets, and that comes down to how many possessions there are.

LSU has opened at 78.5 possessions per 40 minutes, 30th-fastest in Division I. Louisiana Tech sits at 64, 348th. Those are two games each, and Tech's include a non-Division I opponent, but the styles are clear: Wade's group wants to run, and Talvin Hester's wants to grind.

Every possession Tech takes off the clock shrinks the room LSU has to cover a big number. The spread has moved from 28.5 to 30.5 toward LSU, while the total has barely budged at 151.5. LSU went under in both of its games despite scoring 100 and 92, because it held New Orleans and Texas Southern to almost nothing.

LSU owns the paint, not the arc

The Tigers' new roster has been brutal around the basket. LSU is making 70.8% of its twos, ninth nationally, and opponents have an effective field goal percentage (which counts threes as 1.5 makes) of just 28.7%, the best mark in the country.

That inside game runs straight at Tech's biggest weakness. The Bulldogs rank last of 364 in block rate, meaning they almost never alter shots at the rim. Niang, Ruzic and Mo Dioubate should find the paint open.

The perimeter is another story. LSU is shooting 24.0% from three, 335th, and Wade flagged the 5-of-22 night against Texas Southern as something to clean up. Skyy Clark is the puzzle: he hit 42.7% of his threes at UCLA last season but has started 0-for-11 here. If he heats up, Tech's slow-down plan gets much harder.

Tech's hands, LSU's whistles

Tech's best weapon is its pressure. The Bulldogs are taking the ball away on 17.3% of opponent possessions, 19th nationally, and piled up 18 steals against Arkansas-Monticello, tied for second-most in program history. They also protect the ball, with a turnover rate of 12.4 per 100 possessions that ranks 37th.

LSU's ball security is middling by comparison, and its defense fouls a lot. Opponents are drawing free throws at a rate of 50.8 attempts per 100 shots, 326th, which gives a slow, patient offense a way to score without beating the Tigers' length. LSU also started 2-of-8 at the line against Texas Southern, a minor drag if this stays closer than expected.

Two rosters starting from scratch

Neither program looks much like last season. LSU returns 0.0% of last season's minutes, a completely new group built from power-conference transfers and former international pros. Tech returns 10.0%, with sophomore guard Jaylen Fenner the lone holdover among twelve newcomers. Last season's numbers tell you little about either team.

For Tech, Braylon Wenger has carried the scoring at 20.5 points a game, and Kyran Tilley, a Central Missouri transfer, made the preseason All-Sun Belt third team. Their only real test so far was an 85-75 win over a Kent State team ranked 164th in adjusted net efficiency, a game Tech won as an underdog. The Bulldogs, back in the Sun Belt after thirteen years in Conference USA, were picked 12th of 14 in the league.

LSU's engine is UCLA transfer Donovan Dent, averaging 10.0 assists while running the point. The Tigers were picked 14th in the SEC, and the roster still wasn't settled in late October: RJ Luis Jr.'s status rests on a court injunction, and LSU was still pursuing an eligibility waiver for Israeli center Gilad Levy as of Oct. 29. Neither team listed injuries as of Nov. 7.

Tonight closes LSU's three-game homestand on Military Appreciation Night.

What to watch

• The first 10 minutes of pace. If Tech drags this into the 60s, the big spread gets harder to cover.
• Clark's first three. A make could loosen LSU's whole half-court offense.
• Tech's steals. Live-ball turnovers are the Bulldogs' only reliable source of easy points against this defense.
• LSU's foul count. Trips to the line keep a slow offense afloat.