UL Monroe Warhawks vs Texas A&M Aggies prediction: Texas A&M's turnover machine faces a ULM roster built from scratch

Pressure that never lets up

Texas A&M has spent its first two games running opponents out of the building. The Aggies average 81.8 possessions per 40 minutes, 10th-fastest in Division I, and they strip the ball constantly: their forced turnover rate (opponent turnovers per 100 possessions) of 29.4% ranks 6th nationally. Northern Kentucky coughed it up 23 times in Friday's 104-67 rout, the Aggies' first 100-point night of the season.

UL Monroe's ball security looks decent so far, with a 14.6% turnover rate. That figure leans on a blowout of Champion Christian, though, and this is a different kind of test. A&M's guards jump passing lanes, and every giveaway becomes a runout. If the Warhawks can't get into their offense cleanly, the game gets away from them early.

Ryan Cross starts over

ULM is close to a brand-new program. Players on this roster account for just 0.1% of last season's minutes, which makes the 4-28 finish from last season almost meaningless as a guide. Cross, who coached the Warhawks from 2012 to 2020, came back from UAB, and two UAB transfers, Dayjaun Anderson and Quaran McPherson, followed him to Monroe.

Dayjaun Anderson has been the headliner, scoring 21.5 points a game and carrying the offense. That is a jump for a guard who shot 24.1% from three at UAB last season. Quaran McPherson, the other UAB import, has been the sharpshooter early. Phillip Tillman has been a menace in passing lanes, with four steals per game. The opener, an 83-78 home loss to Central Michigan, is the better read on where this group stands. Monroe is also starting a road stretch that runs through TCU and Arizona State.

A reshuffled Aggies rotation

Texas A&M rebuilt too. Returning players cover only 14.1% of last season's minutes, so the transfers set the tone. Jordan Pope, from Texas, has been the most efficient scorer at 17.5 points per game and 46.2% from three. PJ Haggerty, who averaged 23.4 points at Kansas State last season, gives the Aggies a second guard who creates his own shot.

Depth got better Friday. Rylan Griffen returned and was available against Northern Kentucky, and he and Zach Clemence, both starters last season, now come off the bench. That gives the Aggies fresh legs to keep the pace high for 40 minutes.

The paint is closed

If ULM tries to beat the pressure by attacking the rim, it runs into a wall. Opponents are making just 35.1% of their twos against Texas A&M, 17th in the country, and Cade Phillips is swatting three shots a game. The Warhawks' one real opening is the offensive glass. They have grabbed 46.8% of their own misses, while A&M's defensive rebounding ranks 258th. Second chances are the clearest way for Monroe to keep its scoring respectable.

Where the market sits

The spread has climbed from 35 to 36.5 since our feed first logged it, with nine books quoting Texas A&M. The total has held at 167.5. The Aggies covered as a 27.25-point favorite against Northern Kentucky but fell short against Alabama State.

One quirk matters for a margin this large: Texas A&M is shooting 60.0% at the free-throw line, 318th nationally. If the starters sit early and the bench is trading free throws late, a big number can slip by a point or two either way.

What to watch - ULM's turnover count by halftime - Warhawks offensive rebounds against a soft A&M glass - How quickly McMillan goes to his bench